Niger's neighbors and the UN try to de-escalate tensions with last-minute diplomacy

The letter alleged “obvious security reasons in this atmosphere of threat” against Niger, two weeks after mutinous soldiers overthrew the country’s democratically elected president. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) had threatened to use military force if the junta did not reinstate Bazoum by Sunday, a deadline that was ignored.

On Monday, US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland met with coup leaders in Niger and said she had been prevented from meeting with Bazoum, whom she described as “virtually under house arrest.” She said the mutinous military was unreceptive to her requests to start negotiations and restore constitutional order.

“These talks were extremely frank and at times quite difficult because, again, we pushed for a negotiated solution. It was not easy to gain ground. They are quite firm in their position on how they want to proceed,” Nuland told reporters in a call from Niamey.

ECOWAS is scheduled to meet again on Thursday in Abuja, the capital of neighboring Nigeria, to discuss the situation. The atmosphere in the Niger capital felt tense on Tuesday, with members of the security forces checking vehicles.

Washington’s diplomatic involvement is not intended to undermine the work of ECOWAS, said Rida Lyammouri, a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South. “Unlike ECOWAS, the United States has yet to send any intimidating messages despite publicly stating its support for the regional body.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Radio France International on Monday that diplomacy was the preferred path and that he could not speculate on the future of the 1,100 US military deployed in Niger.

“What we are seeing in Niger is extremely disturbing and does nothing for the country and its people. On the contrary, the interruption of their constitutional order puts us, and many other countries, in a position where we have to stop our aid, our support, and this will not benefit the people of Niger,” Blinken commented.

Niger has been a crucial partner of the United States and other European countries, which saw it as one of the last democratic countries in the Sahel region, south of the Sahara desert, with which they could collaborate in the fight against the jihadist violence associated with Al Qaeda and the Islamic State group.

The United States has yet to describe the military junta’s actions as a coup, and doing so would lose Niger hundreds of millions of dollars in military and other assistance. It would also mean the United States would withdraw support from a major drone base it built in Niger to monitor extremists, which analyst Benedict Manzin of risk consultancy Sibyline said would be something the United States would be reluctant to do.

“I understand that reluctance … would essentially be scrapping a $100 million airbase in Agadez,” Manzin said.

Coups d’état have happened frequently in the region in recent years. Neighboring countries Mali and Burkina Faso have each had two since 2020, and ECOWAS has had little leverage to stop them. The bloc’s harsh response in Niger, with economic sanctions, travel restrictions and threats to use force, was an attempt to turn the tide. But the board did not seem open to dialogue. On Sunday it closed the country’s airspace and accused foreign powers of preparing an attack.

Analysts and diplomats say the possibility of military intervention is dwindling, and without regional support for the use of force, ECOWAS and other agencies are looking for a way out.

“A lot of the tough talk from the region and from outside it is perhaps more a reflection of how they wish they had responded to previous coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea,” said Cameron Hudson, a former CIA official.

Similarly, Washington and Paris will now have to make their own tough decisions about collaborating with junta leaders in the fight against terrorism or risk giving up ground to jihadist groups and possibly Russia, he added.

The junta, led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, has been exploiting public grievances towards France, Niger’s former colonial ruler. He has also accused Bazoum’s government of not doing enough to protect the country from Islamic extremists, and has called on the Russian mercenary group Wagner for help. Wagner already operates in a handful of African countries, including Mali, and has been accused of committing human rights abuses.

“We are always on the side of good, on the side of justice and on the side of those who fight for the sovereignty and rights of their people. Call whenever you want,” Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a 30-second audio statement posted Tuesday on a Telegram channel linked to the group.

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Associated Press writers Dasha Litvinova in Tallinn, Estonia, and Danica Kirka in London contributed to this report.

FOUNTAIN: Associated Press

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