Beijing.
Despite the recent travel season, Covid numbers are falling in China. The first nationwide corona wave has probably reached its peak.
At the end of the traditional New Year festival, the health authorities in China the all-clear was given: The first corona wave after the opening of the country would already be nearing its end. A further increase is not to be expected for the time being.
A close look at the data suggests that the tip of the iceberg was reached weeks ago. The number of Covid patients in hospitals, for example, has been falling since the first week of January – first in Beijing and the surrounding provinces, then in the rest of the country.
Corona in China: Fear of mutations so far unfounded
The general normalization can also be underpinned by the data on population mobility: Since the beginning of the month, the number of subway passengers and car journeys in the large cities have also normalized again. The fears of corona mutations abroad also seem unfounded so far: According to the Chinese authorities, the two already known omicron variants BF.7 and BA.5.2 dominate, novel variants were not identified.
With the most recent data underscores the chinese government also their propaganda message of having survived the transition from “zero Covid” to “living with the virus” quickly and without major tragedies. At least in terms of speed, there is probably no contradiction: researchers from Peking University, for example, assume that 900 million Chinese were infected with the corona virus in the first six weeks since the opening.
It is downright surreal how radically public life in China has changed: Just two months ago, everyday life was dominated by daily mass tests and regular lockdowns, but the mouth and nose masks are the only reminders of the pandemic.
China: Skepticism is required when it comes to corona data
There was a great fear that recent travel during the Chinese New Year celebrations would course of infection could flare up again. The Chinese made 226 million domestic trips alone, plus almost three million international trips – that’s 74 percent more than in the previous year. According to the current state of knowledge, there is a trivial reason why a second wave of corona seems to be absent: the infection process at that time seems to have reached most provinces as early as December.
But in general, a good deal of skepticism is required when it comes to the official data from China. Especially since Corona opening the authorities have made it difficult to accurately assess the situation with deliberate lack of transparency and obviously misleading figures.
Corona statistics correct? Criticism of China’s data collection
Even with the number of Covid dead The state information still does not capture the actual extent: According to this, no more than 4,300 people died per day in China, currently it is said to be significantly less than a thousand. However, the statistics have very definite flaws: As before, only people who died in the hospitals are included – sick people who succumb to the virus in their own four walls do not appear in it.
Even the World Health Organization (WHO), which always tries to adopt a diplomatic tone in its dealings with China, has it People’s Republic openly criticized for their lack of published data.
By the end of the year, up to 1.5 million people will have died in China
However, the general trend is not fundamentally doubted even by independent epidemiologists from abroad. There is tentative agreement that China has actually passed the peak of the first nationwide corona wave. Ben Cowling from the university Hong Kong also assumes that herd immunity within the population will prevent the next big wave in the coming months.
By the end of the year, according to most estimates, around one million to one and a half million people will take part in the Coronavirus to be deceased. It also means that the People’s Republic will get away with a lighter death toll compared to the United States or most European countries – especially since the country was able to sit out the deadly Delta Wave thanks to draconian “zero Covid” measures.
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