“Old Europe believed in a deal with Russia and old Europe failed. But there is a new Europe, a Europe that remembers what Russian communism was. And Poland is the leader of this new Europe,” said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki during a visit to the White House in April. Morawiecki indirectly issued tips against heads of government from Western Europe. He seems to position himself as a counter-model to France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz.
It is undisputed that heads of state like Morawiecki and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, with their clear course against Russia, attract more attention in times of war. “The voices of the Central and Eastern Europeans are being heard more in the European Council and taken more seriously, and there is a major eastward enlargement agenda on the table,” historian Timothy Garton Ash was quoted as saying by the New York Times.
Whether this attention translates into political capital in Brussels seems less clear. “The region has missed opportunities for greater EU leadership before,” says The Economist. Judy Dempsey from the Brussels think tank Carnegie Europe is skeptical about Polish efforts in an interview with ORF.at.
“Poland was able to expand its influence in NATO”
“Poland was able to expand its influence above all in NATO,” says long-time Irish journalist Dempsey. The country is incredibly “Atlantic”. In the EU, Poland, together with the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, would have ensured that the momentum for sanctions against Russia would continue. They also tried to persuade all EU countries to give Ukraine political, financial and military aid.
But that differs “very much from the overall influence that Poland has in Europe,” she says. For several reasons, Dempsey does not believe that there is a tectonic shift in power. In contrast to the Baltic States, Poland is a populous country with a sizeable economy, according to Dempsey. But it is not a member of the euro zone, she adds.
“If Poland really wants to have influence in the EU, it should join the euro zone,” Dempsey stressed. In fact, according to Dempsey, the ruling right-wing nationalist Law and Order Party (PiS) is reducing its European influence through its idiosyncratic handling of issues such as the rule of law and women’s rights. And this despite the fact that the country “was one of the big stars of the European Union after its accession in 2004”.
Grain dispute: shock waves through Eastern Europe
Poland has also not made it clear what kind of Europe it envisages given the many challenges facing the Union, says Dempsey. This ranges from a common foreign policy to dealing with the climate crisis. According to Dempsey, the Polish government places “a lot of value on national sovereignty” and is also questioning the powers of the European Commission. “We have already seen this in the dispute over Ukrainian grain with Poland, Slovakia and Hungary.”
Farmers in the eastern EU countries face disproportionate competition from the duty-free import of large quantities of Ukrainian grain made possible in the course of the war. In Poland and Slovakia, the topic is also big because elections are being held in both countries this year. Agriculture is an important clientele for the PiS party in power in Poland.
“Poland’s status in the EU remains peripheral,” wrote Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw branch of think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in a blog. The parliamentary elections in the autumn bring with them “hopes that a new government – possibly formed from pro-European and liberal forces – can live up to expectations of the country becoming a leading power in the EU”.
factors of power
So who sets the tone in the EU? “Despite all the efforts and the good will of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, it is actually the member states that set the agendas, call the shots and dictate bilateral foreign policy,” says Dempsey. The actual centers of power are still in Berlin and Paris.
According to Dempsey, the power of Germany and France is based on the fact that they are among the six founding states. But it is much more important that Germany and France are the largest economies and also the two most populous countries in the EU. Germany has 83 million inhabitants, France has around 68 million. With around 38 million inhabitants, Poland is the largest Eastern European country and ranks fifth.
The Baltic States are too small, both in terms of population and economy, to guide the EU. Of course, EU countries can help themselves by forming alliances. There are examples of this with the Visegrad Group or the Bucharest Nine as well.
Alliances without influence?
Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary are involved in the Visegrad Group. The alliance has existed since 1991. The Bucharest Nine are made up of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The alliance was formed in response to the Russian invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014.
In both groups, Hungary is also considered an outlier because of its pro-Russian policy. A common line is missing in many questions. And: All those states would receive more from the EU budget than they pay in, according to the “Economist”. “In practice, that reduces their impact.”
Expert sees opportunity for new alliances
In any case, Dempsey advises forming alliances between western and eastern states. Not moving beyond Central Europe is “counterproductive” and would only confirm “old prejudices” of the founding states. “It is time to go beyond that and form coalitions that convey a much stronger European perspective on foreign and security policy, which could potentially help Europe become more cohesive.” Macron and Scholz believe that such alliances will come about the expert does not.
However, Poland and the Baltic states could always use the gain in self-confidence to negotiate prestigious EU posts. The fact that the Lithuanian politician Jovita Neliupsiene was recently appointed EU ambassador in Washington was seen in Brussels as a signal of recognition for Eastern and Northern European states. It is to be expected that the growing self-confidence after the European elections in 2024 will also be reflected in haggling for top jobs.
