Putin allows higher oil supply from Kazakhstan to Germany – a trap?

International

Kazakhstan is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world. The steppe country has large deposits of chromium, uranium, zinc, iron ore, copper and gold – but also oil. And the Kazakh government now wants even more of that Germany deliver – albeit through Russian pipelines.

Kazakhstan has received approval from Russian President Vladimir Putin to To use Russia’s pipeline infrastructure to ship 300,000 tons of oil to buyers in Germany in the first quarter of this year.

Vladimir Putin apparently has nothing against Kazakhstan supplying more oil to Germany. Image: IMAGO/SNA / Mikhail Klimentyev

In total, up to 1.5 million tons are expected to be over by 2023 Russia flow to Germany, the Kazakh Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov announced. According to him, this volume could be increased to seven million tons – as soon as Germany buys it. Russia apparently has nothing against Kazakhstan’s plans.

Tension between Russia and Kazakhstan

The atmosphere between the once close allies is tense. Since Russia’s illegal war of aggression against the Ukraine Kazakhstan is increasingly distancing itself from the Kremlin. The country keeps testing Putin’s limits.

For example, the Kazakhs set up yurts in the Ukrainian war zones to People to help on site. A slap in the face for Russia – and yet Putin allows Kazakhstan to do business with Germany. With the country that is currently freeing itself from Russian oil and wants to bring Russia to its knees with tough sanctions.

Is the deal a trap?

“Russia could very well take advantage of the situation and thereby control Kazakhstan”, Central Asia expert Temur Umarov tells watson. It wouldn’t be the first time. As early as 2022, after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Russia cut off Kazakhstan’s oil flow. The reason for this: the country did not dance to Putin’s tune. “Russia can stop the flow of oil at any time,” says the Uzbek, who is a researcher at the Carnegie Foundation for International Peace.

Kazakh Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov is apparently optimistic.

Kazakh Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov has big plans for his country’s oil exports.Image: IMAGO / SNA / Alexey Maishev

“We’ve never had major problems with Russia in terms of pumping,” Akchulakov said earlier this year. However, approval from Russia was far from guaranteed. After all, the oil that Germany receives from Kazakhstan is intended to partially make up for the lack of crude oil supplies caused by a boycott of Russian products. So why would Russia agree to this?

“The amount of oil is too small for Russia to pay for it relationship with Kazakhstan,” says Umarov. The amount that Kazakhstan supplies is well below the 20 million tons per year that Russia used to sell to Germany. Putin knows that Kazakhstan cannot replace Russia as an oil supplier for Europe.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is already looking for new export routes to further distance itself from Russia.

Kazakhstan is looking for new oil export routes

Kazakhstan is in ample talks to explore new export routes that bypass Russia entirely. One way would be to ship the oil across the Caspian Sea by tanker. It is then transported to Turkey by freight traffic through Azerbaijan and Georgia. However, this route has a limited scope and is far more expensive than using Russian pipelines.

Until better ways are found, Kazakhstan will depend on Russia for its oil exports to Europe. This gives the Kremlin control and cash into the state coffers. Because Russia earns a lot from the transit fees when the “black gold” flows through thousands of kilometers of the Russian Druzhba pipeline.