Exploding drones keep the Ukrainian population on constant toes as they rage over the city of Kyiv on the first working day of the year.
Air sirens began to wail shortly before midnight. About an hour later, several impacts were reported in the capital, and explosions whose echo reverberated throughout the city centre.
Critical infrastructure and private homes have been hit, Kyiv’s military governor Oleksij Kuleba said. The result is a lot of material damage, but in this round no human life has been lost. The Ukrainians consider it a partial military victory.
– Kyiv repels drone attacks for the second night in a row, writes the city’s governor.
TRUFFETT: Emergency workers remove debris from a house destroyed after a Russian missile attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. Photo: Roman Hrytsyna/AP Photo
Over 60 drones shot down
During the latest attack, Kuleba stated that the air force shot down Shahed drones in areas near the capital.
– Stay in shelters and safe places!
Shahed 136 drones, also known as kamikaze drones, are manufactured in Iran. The small military vessel has a range of 2,500 kilometers and explodes on impact.
The Russians call the drone Geran-2.
– During the air warning over the capital, 22 air targets were shot down, it writes Ukrainian military.
Over the New Year’s weekend, the Ukrainian Air Force shot down 45 drones, according to Ukrainian authorities.
Emptying the warehouses
Russian forces in Ukraine are experiencing significant problems with artillery ammunition, a problem that will become more visible by March 2023, according to the report by Kyrylo Budanov from 31 December.
Budanov, who works in Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), stated that Russian forces have previously used 60,000 artillery projectiles per day [fra en uspesifisert dato]but that they now only use 19,000 to 20,000 projectiles.
Furthermore, the report states that Russian forces have also taken all remaining artillery ammunition from Belarusian military stockpiles to support their operations in Ukraine.
REMAINS: Parts of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), which Ukrainian authorities believe is an Iranian-made Shahed-136 suicide drone, have been found following a Russian attack on a fuel depot in October. Photo: Reuters/ Vitalii Hnidyi
Collects weapons from others
– We know that Russia has consumed much of its original stock of weapons and these systems, so the question is whether they are able to produce new ones, as well as resupply themselves.
This is what former defense chief Sverre Diesen says to TV 2, and points to two reasons in particular:
- Western sanctions
- Export control
“With the East we must be friends, with the West we can always negotiate”; the old Russian proverb has been given a renewed meaning in 2022/2023.
At the start of the war, a number of Western countries, including Norway, introduced a number of sanctions against Russia. As a result, they have lost access to important weapons parts and materials, which has drastically affected weapons production. Russia was forced to turn its gaze towards partners in the East.
The question of whether they manage to obtain roughly equivalent weapons from others, such as North Korea and Iran:
– To some extent, they can probably do that, but then it is uncertain how long the Russians can continue in the same way. There is a limit, but we don’t quite know where it is, says Diesen.
The danger in the Crimea
The fate of Kyiv and Moscow can be decided in Crimea, experts tell NTB.
– The most likely scenario is that the war continues into 2023 as it ended in 2022: as a war of attrition between Europe’s two largest countries, says Professor Tormod Heier at the Staff College.
– The most realistic scenario is that the war continues, with high costs, human and financial, says Nupi researcher and Russia expert Julie Wilhelmsen.
NUPI: Senior researcher Julie Wilhelmsen gave a lecture at the Oslo Military Society on Monday. Theme “Russia: how real is the threat?” Photo: Heiko Junge / NTB
A quick military victory is probably not imminent, according to the two.
Negotiations seem unrealistic when Russia wants to claim large parts of Ukraine, while the Ukrainians are on the offensive to reconquer land.
Nuclear weapons
They single out Crimea as a wild card that can change the rules of the game.
– The big question is how far the US will go in supporting a possible Ukrainian liberation of the Crimean peninsula. For Crimea, it means a great deal to Russian security, says Heier.
PROFESSOR: Tormod Heier is professor of military strategy and operations, head of research at the Norwegian Staff School, professor-II at Høgskolen i Inlandet, and docent at Försvarshögskolan in Stockholm. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
A loss of the base complex of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea would weaken Russian control in the Black Sea.
– The US knows this, and it can perhaps lower the threshold for Russian use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, since this will be seen as an existential crisis in the Kremlin, he says.
Wilhelmsen points out that Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s latest speeches show that they will not deviate from the goal of taking back Crimea. This despite the fact that it will cost an enormous number of Ukrainian lives, she says.
VISIT: Russian President Vladimir Putin visits arms manufacturer Shcheglovsky Val in Tula, Russia on Christmas Eve. Photo: Russian Presidential Press Office, Sputnik Pool Photo via AP
– The danger of escalation continues into next year. On the Russian side, this is set up as a proxy war, where the West is allegedly trying to defeat Russia via Ukraine, says Wilhelmsen.
AT WAR: February marks one year since Russia and President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. Photo: MAXIM SHEMETOV
– I am afraid that the Kremlin may use any weapon to maintain control in Eastern Ukraine. But it is still reassuring that in 2022 they have slowed down somewhat to avoid this becoming a war between Russia and NATO, she says.
Wilhelmsen expresses that things can change too. If there is a negotiated solution that does not have sufficient support on both sides, there is a risk that the conflict will flare up again later.
Military victories can be dangerous too, she points out.
– If it were to go towards a full military victory for Ukraine, which could also happen, there is a danger that Russia could use nuclear weapons. This is existential for the Putin regime, as they have set up this war, says Wilhelmsen.
