Statistics : Excess mortality: Mystery of record deaths in December

The one that has been going on for months excess mortality reached a sad record at the end of the year. “In a December there have never been as many deaths in Germany as in 2022,” explained Felix zur Nieden, an expert on demography and deaths at the Federal Statistical Office, to our editorial team. The number series go back to 1946, the first year after the war. The pandemic alone is not enough to justify the development – top virologists like Christian Drosten had just declared it over.

1.06 million people died in 2022, up 3.4 percent from the previous year, with 111,403 cases in the last month alone. The December numbers are “extraordinarily high”, so low. They were 19 percent above the mean value for the previous years 2018 to 2021. And this trend continued in the first week of January 2023.

Death numbers in December 2022: Pronounced combination of flu and corona cases?

In principle, increasing numbers have been expected for about 20 years because the increasingly older population will. But only about a fifth of the increase in 2022 can “be explained by the increasing number of older people,” according to the Federal Statistical Office.

The wave of influenza, which is gradually flattening out, is an “obvious main cause” for zur Nieden Covid-19 deaths are another. This should also include late effects of corona infections and postponed operations and check-ups during the pandemic. The statistician speaks of a “pronounced combination” of both factors – flu and corona. also read: Virologist gives the all-clear – flu wave is already flattening out

At the beginning of 2022, the death rate in Germany had “almost normalized”, according to the Federal Statistical Office. From March to May declared a renewed corona wave the increase in numbers, from June to August it was the heat records. The numbers, which continued to be noticeably high from September, then irritated even health experts.

Excess mortality: Lauterbach was already looking for explanations in October

Known in October Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach (SPD) via Twitter that the reasons for the excess mortality were “not finally clarified”. And that should not change in the following months. You might also be interested in: Sudden excess mortality – guesswork over death statistics

According to the current influenza weekly report from the Robert Koch Institute, a level of respiratory diseases was reached from November “that above the peak of severe influenza outbreaks in previous years lag”. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the number of people who died in December 2022 “exceeds the extent known from flu waves”.

The flu is neither the solution to the mystery nor the only explanation for the record numbers in December, but it is the strongest lead. Zur Nieden asks for patience, in-depth analyzes and data sources are pending “and will also be made from the Science still expected.”

Why 2022 was a black year and December was the sad end

Before the pandemic was the Life expectancy tended to increase. As expected, in the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 the number of deaths was higher “than in almost all previous years,” according to the Wiesbaden statisticians. In 2022, however, another 35,000 more people died than in the corona year 2021. Unlike in 2020 and 2021, the number of deaths among women (plus 4.3 percent) increased more than among men (plus 2.5 percent).

The table from the Federal Statistical Office shows the numbers over the course of 2022 and the increase compared to the average value for the years 2018 to 2021. 2022 was a black year. And December came to a sad end.

As of January 9, 2023

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