According to US broadcaster CNN, Kiev has revised plans for its counter-offensive because of leaked US intelligence documents. However, both the Ukrainian state representatives and experts deny this.
The leaked alleged US intelligence documents, which became public last week, are described by some US media as one of the largest data leaks in recent years. Most published material relates directly or indirectly to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The alleged intelligence documents are said to contain data on the delivery of Western military aid, the allegedly poor state of Ukraine’s air defenses and the numerical strength of Ukrainian units at the front.
According to CNN sources in Kyiv, Ukraine has allegedly changed some of its military plans due to the leak of secret documents. While Kiev officially denies this and assures that the data leak will not affect the Ukrainian army’s counteroffensive plans, Washington is conducting a criminal investigation. The leak, it says, could pose a “major risk” to US national security.
Kiev: data leak does not affect plans
Ukraine’s strategic plans have remained unchanged, adviser to the Ukrainian Presidential Office Mykhailo Podoliak told Reuters. More precise tactical plans would be constantly adjusted.
“There are strategic tasks and they are unchanged. But operational-tactical scenarios are constantly reviewed, based on an assessment of the situation on the battlefield, the supply of resources, intelligence data on the enemy’s resources, and the like. A reassessment of the plans is not possible now, because they are only now being worked out,” explained Podoljak.
He recently wrote on Twitter: “We need less worry about ‘leaks’ and more long-range weapons to end the war properly and confront the Russian Federation with reality.”
For his part, commenting on the data leak, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov stressed that Kiev is working on its own military plans and that “the opinion of people who have nothing to do with it doesn’t interest us”. “The circle of people who have information is extremely limited,” he assured.
What will become of the Ukrainian counter-offensive?
Experts interviewed by Deutsche Welle doubt that the leaked secret service documents can influence the planned Ukrainian counter-offensive. Oleg Katkov, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian professional journal Defense Express, notes that the data does not contain any information that poses a threat.
“The contents of the documents don’t really look like classified information, more like an ‘analysis booklet’ for people who only have a vague idea of what’s happening. Such documents usually do not contain anything that is secret. Absolute secrecy is when a document is assigned a classification level. Documents like this don’t leave the authorities and they don’t even circulate in their offices,” Katkow told DW.
Military expert and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan also points out that a significant part of the “leaked” information was previously in the public domain and was in fact not secret. That is why, in his opinion, they cannot in any way influence Kiev’s military plans.
“These are rather simple documents that were collected for some briefings or to provide information to many people,” says the DW expert. He believes the documents were marked secret even though the information was not classified. In his opinion, the leak caused “no problems”, according to Switan.
Where does the data leak come from and who benefits from it?
According to media reports, US authorities are targeting an employee of a military base in their search for the originator of the data leak. As the US newspaper “Washington Post” reports, it is said to be a young gun enthusiast who shared the documents in a chat group on the Discord platform.
The newspaper cites, among other things, two members of the group. There was initially no official information about the alleged perpetrator. It is still unclear whether the military employee is actually the originator of the leak.
In an interview with Oleg Katkov, which was conducted by Deutsche Welle before the Washington Post report was published, he points out that the problem with such data leaks is that neither the source nor the information itself can be verified. Therefore, he does not rule out that the leak is in fact a massive disinformation campaign involving Ukraine’s partner countries to confuse the Russian military leadership.
“For example, in terms of assessing the possibility of a Ukrainian counter-offensive, as well as the amount of equipment supplied by partners,” says Katkov, adding that this could be one of the targets and one of the possible sources of the leaked documents.
However, the expert doubts that such data leaks in Russia are perceived as a serious source. “This information is not considered verified by specialists in the Russian Federation, it is undoubtedly perceived, but it is not considered the main source of information,” says Katkov.
According to him, the Russian secret service has better opportunities to gather information. In addition, the leaked documents would not contain any information that the Russian military and intelligence services could not obtain through their own channels.
Roman Switan, with whom Deutsche Welle also spoke before the media reports became known, is convinced that the leaked data was a special psychological operation by the Russian secret service, which was carried out extremely clumsily. Therefore, he believes, Ukraine was able to turn them in their favor. The documents would only strengthen the partners’ support for Kiev.
According to Svitan, the publication of the volume of arms supplied to Ukraine by its partners puts pressure on Moscow itself. “I don’t envy any army that sees these numbers, the real amount of arms shipments that this army has to deal with,” stresses Switan.
Adaptation from the Russian: Markian Ostapchuk
Author: Maxim Sydorschevskyj
