The blue dollar rebounded $4 this Wednesday and closed at a record value of $398 in a day in which the first settlements of the soybean dollar appeared 3 Therefore, the Central Bank extended the buying streak in the official exchange market for the second consecutive day. This Thursday it finally reached $400.
After not having registered operations in the first two days of validity under the new exchange rate of $300 for soybeans, in the round of this Wednesday Some US$94 million were settled with this scheme.
This allowed the BCRA to register a net purchasing balance of US$2 million for its intervention in the exchange market. Thus, the monetary entity reduced the negative result accumulated in April to u$s513 million.
The paradox is that while the agricultural dollar can help increase reserves, Analysts predict that the pesos charged by soybeans will boost the blue for seeking coverage in that ticket that typically occurs in an election year. Thus, they foresee that the informal dollar it could soon cross the $400 barrier.
Some analysts link the rise of the informal dollar to the recent modifications to the parking lot (the minimum periods of permanence in the portfolio for the sale of titles) for operations with Cash With Liquidation (CCL), with which the government tries to generate more demand for the Bonares within the framework of the exchange of bonds in dollars for the public sector.
These modifications arranged by the National Securities Commission entered into force on Tuesday, April 11. Tobias Pejkovichan economist at Facimex Valores, judged that “the intention is to strengthen the ability to influence the implicit exchange rate in the run-up to weeks that will show a considerable increase in monetary issue due to the application of the agricultural dollar.”
On the third day of validity of the agricultural dollar, today the first operations appeared and US$94 million were settled
Soybean dollar: lean start
For the first time since the implementation of the agricultural dollar on Monday, there were liquidations for US$94 million under the differential exchange rate of US$300.
The finance and agribusiness specialist Salvador Vitelli indicated that thus “the BCRA bought US$94 million at $300 and sold US$92 million in the MULC, which results in a net purchase of US$2 million at $4,243.6 per dollar (prorated). loss on net purchase)”. And he specified that “it is a loss of $7,887 million and a daily issue of $8,487 million.”
The specialist evaluated that in this debut “The liquidation is somewhat lean, but it is understandable around the fundamentals of the market where exports are going through prices that the producer is not yet seduced by.”
“There is a lot of uncertainty regarding what is going to happen with soybeans. Today exporters came out with a much lower price than what was expected, they went out to open positions at $93,000 and a lot of the supply was stopped at $110,000, so It is a fairly empty market where not too many operations are being carried out,” he said.
Vitelli considered that “it is important that it has already begun to settle at $300, the problem is that the exporters have not yet reached a meeting point with the producers and they are very far away, and we will see who will win the fight.”
For his part, Gustavo Quintanafrom Pr Cambios highlighted that “The expected help from the export sector was present today, decompressing the tension on the market generated by the continuous drain of foreign currency from the BCRA.”
The BCRA ended this Wednesday with a net buying balance of US$2 million in the exchange market
Blue dollar: the causes of the new record
In this context, the blue dollar consolidated its upward trend this Wednesday, April 12 – the day before it had risen $3 pesos – and jumped $4, with which it closed at a new nominal record value of $398, although in some areas of the country it exceeded $400.
the economist Natalia Butterfly linked the jump in the blue “to the difficulty of the BCRA to accumulate foreign currency and an agricultural dollar that does not show great performance, only on the third day they began to liquidate, which shows the difficulties of the government to continue maintaining a backward exchange rate”. And he added that “the inflation data -which in March was around 7%- always brings a greater demand for dollars for coverage”.
For his part, the economist Federico Glustein attributed it mainly to “two causes: first the effect of parking lowered the demand for financial dollars due to complexities to operate, deriving part of the operations to the blue, and secondly that there is still no regulation of the agricultural dollar, therefore, there are sectors demanding ‘cheap’ dollars in the informal sector, which makes the price rise.”
Andres Reschini, an analyst at F2 Soluciones Financieras, agreed that it is possible that “by making CCL operations more difficult, more demand will be channeled towards blue.” But he remarked that “in addition, nominality continues to accelerate and In an election year it is logical that we will see greater dollarization pressures”.
In tune, the financial analyst Christian Butler He considered that the blue dollar “was very ironed, we are having a 7% monthly inflation, I do not see a call for attention in these movements, the trend is going to be upwards.”
The expert also claimed that “The market already knows that a new flood of pesos is coming -due to the greater emission that the agricultural dollar implies- and that can make someone speed up the purchase to avoid having to pay more expensive”.
The blue dollar rebounded $4 this Tuesday and closed a record value of $398
With the same diagnosis, the analyst Gustavo Ber He opined that the rise in the blue, which “is a dollar associated with retailers, could be related to the projected acceleration in inflation, and to closing positions – in this uncertain political and economic context – before the election season.”
“The readjustment is due to the monetary issue projected as a result of the agricultural dollar, which is combined with the anticipated greater pre-electoral dollarization”he emphasized.
Parallel dollars: what does the market foresee?
Glustein He assured that “with the first liquidations of the soybean dollar there will be greater demand for dollarization, and added to that, come the elections that encourage agents to be in a more stable currency.
“Most likely, the blue will soon exceed $400and situate slightly above”, estimated the economist who predicts that “the MEP and the CCL will tend to stabilize between $390 and $400 and between $400 and $410, respectively”.
For his part, Reschini He said that “I don’t see any grounds for the financial dollars to calm down, if they do it is because they are forced through obstacles and/or interventions, but not because the market is seeing fundamental solutions.” And he asserted that “parking does not value the peso, so the trend continues to be upwards”.
For Bottlesr, “the trend of all the dollars is upward, if they come out with more pesos, the demand is going to increase; nobody says that everything that is going to be liquidated is going to be dollarized, but with a part going, there is pressure because there aren’t that many dollars so you notice it in the price.”
Acceleration of inflation also drives further dollarization via blue dollar
Calves He maintained that the course of the parallel dollars will depend on what happens with the inflation data, with the interest rate, and how much the BCRA can buy” but affirmed that “Without a doubt, the emission that will be made with this agricultural dollar scheme will put pressure on it” to currencies.
In addition, Ber He considered that “in the short term, financial dollars should remain relatively calm after the regulatory changes on the CCL, the expected debt swap, and the exchange window granted by the agricultural dollar.”
At the same time, Paul RepettoHead of Research at Aurum Valores, anticipates that “financial dollars will continue to be sued”. And he argued that “the government will be able to make some degree of intervention in them to avoid sudden fluctuations, but as long as there is a surplus of pesos, the pressure will be there.”
The economist explained that with the modifications to the parking lot to operate in CCL “they are trying to create a demand for an asset (Bonars) to be able to intervene in the market.” And it is that I know that the public sector has US$ 35,000 million in Bonares, considering both the BCRA and public organizations.
“The government would like there to be more demand for dollars through the Bonares because there it has more firepower but the market does not operate with this type of instrument, and the government has Bonares that are not very liquid, so the conditions are not given enough to create demand and depth in such a short time that it can function optimally” he claimed.
