the blue dollar it reached $400 this Thursday and jumped almost $10 in three days. Analysts attribute this to several variables, one of which is the new regulation of dollar bonds for the purchase of the dollar Cash With Liquidation (CCL) and another, the evolution of inflation.
This happens despite the fact that the agricultural dollar is pulling foreign currency from the Central Bank (BCRA), which made its biggest purchase of the year on Thursday in the official exchange market. The outlook is worrying and the market explains what is happening and how the illegal dollar will continue.
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Gustavo Quintana, from PR Operadores de Cambio, maintained that, “the blue dollar market is a small market in which impact changes in trend” and considers that the increase in these days is due to a lower supply and a readjustment of prices, after a few weeks with relative calm.
And it is that, as explained by the EcoGo economist, Lucio Garay Méndez, “the blue dollar has been in the $380-$400 area for a long time, but, with inflation levels that we currently use in Argentina, this exchange rate became much cheaper in real terms”.
Inflation and exchange rate lag
The same is the opinion of Lorena Di Giorgio, director of Equilibra, who maintains that, “if one has a not so short-term perspective, we can say that the blue is making its inflationary catch-up”given that, this year, that parallel exchange rate is still advancing below inflation.
However, going towards the more short-term reasons, Garay Méndez considers that a central element is the context of election year, added to all the political noise and the background of the last PASO of 2019, which generated a skyrocket in exchange rates. That, he argues, “encourages demand for dollars.”
The electoral landscape
It happens that, as indicated by Di Giorgio, at the moment, there is a strong uncertainty at the political level regarding the PASO, with ruptures both within the ruling party and the opposition. That opens the door to multiple electoral scenarios that might not be so well received by the market.
Thus, the analysts make it clear that with each passing day we are closer to the PASO elections and public disputes begin to appear, the first definitions in terms of candidacies are getting closer and in a context of unpredictabilitytaking refuge in the dollar is an option that becomes tempting.
