George Soros is the founder and chair of the Open Society Foundations. In 2019 his book “For the Defense of the Open Society” was published.
Our world is changing at a rapid pace. So quickly that some of the predictions I made last month during a speech on the eve of the Munich Security Conference have already been confirmed. The most serious changes relate to climate change.
My most important message in Munich was: The global climate is heavily dependent on what happens in the northern polar region. So far, the local climate system has mostly been considered separately from the global one. Winds used to blow in a predictable counter-clockwise direction. However, due to increasing human intervention in nature, this separation between the Arctic and the climate in the rest of the world no longer exists.
Indeed, cold air is now pouring out of the northern polar region and being replaced by warm air drawn in from other regions. As a result, the Arctic has warmed four times faster than the rest of the world over the past four decades, and the pace of that warming is increasing alarmingly.
More and more researchers find it appropriate to declare a climate emergency.
George SorosFounder and Chair of the Open Society Foundations
Since my speech, temperatures in the polar region have risen more than 20 degrees above normal. This has set new temperature records and heightened concerns about the pace of melting of the Greenland ice sheet. It would be important for the climate problem to come to the fore again. But first another problem has to be solved.
At least the scientific understanding of the warming process has made great strides. More and more researchers find it appropriate to declare a climate emergency. At the current rate, global warming will inevitably exceed 1.5 degrees.
There have also been important changes in Russia’s war against Ukraine in recent months. By October, Ukraine was victorious on the battlefield. Then Russia, with the help of Iran, used drones on a large scale. The aim was to cut off the Ukrainian civilian population from the supply of electricity, heating and water and to undermine the morale of the people. So Ukraine went on the defensive.
On the Russian side, however, infighting between the regular Russian army and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s notorious mercenary army, the Wagner group, recently developed. The regular army of Russia is in a desolate situation. It is poorly managed, ill-equipped and highly demoralized. To their displeasure, the Wagner group managed to capture areas around the town of Bakhmut while getting stuck or losing ground elsewhere. Feeling threatened by the Wagner group, the army launched a bureaucratic war, which they won.
Ukraine benefits from these Russian infighting. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy consulted with the commanders of his army. They unanimously recommended putting Prigozhin’s mercenary force through the proverbial meat grinder while it was so weak.
20
Degree the temperature in the polar region is above normal.
If they receive the modern weaponry they were promised – in particular the Leopard 2 tanks – the Ukrainian armed forces will be able to launch a counterattack. That should happen around May, but could be earlier.
A Ukrainian spring offensive as a decisive turning point
So most of the predictions I made in Munich about the war—including that a massive Ukrainian spring offensive will turn the tide—are likely to come to pass. Putin desperately wants a ceasefire, but refuses to admit it. Chinese President Xi Jinping is in the same boat.
However, US President Joe Biden is unlikely to seize this perceived opportunity to negotiate a ceasefire, having pledged that the US would not negotiate behind Zelenskyy’s back.
The countries of the former Soviet empire, eager to preserve their independence, can hardly wait for the Russian army in Ukraine to be crushed. Then Putin’s dream of a revived Russian empire will be shattered and will no longer pose a threat to Europe.
The defeat of Russian imperialism will have far-reaching consequences. This will mean enormous relief for open societies, but pose immense problems for closed societies. Most importantly, this development will allow the world to focus on its biggest problem: climate change.
