Does Cristina play? When will Alberto come down with the idea of his re-election? And if she doesn’t put it down? One, two or three candidates? How do we make the PASO of Peronism competitive? Can Sergio still be a candidate despite inflation? Who is better than him? axel? Wado? Scioli? He front of all is submerged in endless questions that still have no answers, a reason that generates impatience and confusion
In the ruling party there is only clarity about what is happening on the sidewalk across the street. Despite the crisis that unleashed the internship between Mauricio Macri and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, in Together for Change there are fewer questions to be resolved, although those that are missing may be decisive in the final assembly of the electoral scenario. Proper names and the ideas they express modify the proposal for the electorate in a possible ballot.
The latest polls that were taken in different government offices warned of a consolidation of the vote for Javier Milei and Patricia Bullrich. Two exponents of a harsh and ultra-critical discourse that the Government has not yet found how to combat effectively.
In Peronism there is also latent the idea that the polls are not correct – as has happened so many times – and that the Buenos Aires Head of Government is the one who takes the place in the general election. For Peronism, one is not the same as the other because the electorate that must be sought is completely different.
What is clear in various government terminals is that while the two largest coalitions in the country are obsessed by their internal ones, Milei does not stop growing and captivating an audience that is no longer just young and middle class. The libertarian breaks barriers every day.
The variation of names that walk towards the Casa Rosada have a direct impact on the electoral strategy of the Government. The decision on the profile of the candidates, the sector of the electorate that must be sought or the need to generate a STEP with powerful names to have a certain volume, are part of a host of decisions that have not yet been made.
There are just over two months left before the lists of candidates are closed and in Peronism the only thing there is is a huge pile of doubts that, added to the lack of a negotiating table, jeopardize the course of the political project. Today, each sector plays on its own, waiting for the movement of the three most important partners of the alliance: Alberto Fernández, Cristina Kirchner and Sergio Massa.
None of them defined their role in the elections. It wouldn’t be so serious if it weren’t for the fact that Peronism is overwhelmed by an inflationary crisis, an unstable economy and an internal rift that prevents it from generating minimal agreements to resolve the electoral strategy. The rancor between the President and Kirchnerism is such that they have not yet been able to coordinate a negotiating table. They don’t go forward or back.
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In both sectors they assure that sooner rather than later they will sit down to agree on the rules of the game for the PASO. Behind that vocation there is a doubt that is expanding. Is the Frente de Todos in a position to have a competitive STEP or is it better to group behind a single candidate that contains the votes of the entire front?
The question arises as to whether the primary elections give rise to the presentation of candidates with low voting intentions, who end up giving an image of greater weakness in the face of society. In Peronism they are evaluating how to rearm the electoral story in the face of the incessant growth of the libertarian outpost led by Javier Milei, but they have a defined line to defend themselves against the opposition leader’s questions. It is because there is no line of argument that runs through the entire political alliance and serves to defend the management.
No leader gave entity to the Milei phenomenon until in the last two months the consultancy works showed him firm in a floor of 20% of votes. Far from falling off that platform, there are districts in which their electoral flow increases and appears as a phenomenon that cannot be accurately decoded.
The young vote that Milei drags along not only escapes Juntos por el Cambio, but also Peronism. This is how it is understood in various pro-government offices, where the most optimistic imagine an election of thirds and the most pessimistic warn that, in this economic and political context that the ruling party is going through, they will have to make great efforts to avoid third parties.
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Neither the chain of negative inflation data, nor the increase in the flow of votes for Milei, nor the outbreak of the inmate in Together for Change, nor the proximity of the closing of the lists, managed to change the thick dynamics of the Frente de Todos, where they continue to engage in the clamor operation and the war without trenches to weaken Alberto Fernández.
In the ruling party there are those who believe they need define a candidate as soon as possible to bring together all the energy on that political project and hide the internal ones under the rug. Without so much uncertainty about the electoral structure, the possibility of blocking the exit of votes from space would be much greater.
The chaos of this time produces a constant vote leak. Nobody bothers to retain them because they are focused on tightening the rope to see how they end up after what they assume will be a great battle of ideologies within the coalition.
The defeat that the Neuquén Popular Movement (MPN) suffered yesterday in Neuquén became a new warning signal for the Frente de Todos. The elected governor, rolando figueroa, was supported by the PRO and the UCR in a provincial agreement that he made after leaving the MPN. The triumph ended 60 years of hegemony of the provincial party. Winds of change that do not stop making noise within the life of Peronism.
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