– The operation has gone catastrophically badly for Russia

– Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre says that a new iron curtain is descending over Europe. Do you share his opinion?

– Russia has deliberately chosen a permanent break with the West.

– Are we seeing the contours of a new cold war?

– There is a major war in Europe. It is a turning point in European history, says Lars Nordrum to TV 2.

The acting head of the National Intelligence Service says that the Russian military has gotten stuck in Ukraine.

– Catastrophically bad

Vladimir Putin’s military “special operation”, which was supposed to last a few days, has turned into a war of positions along a front of 2,500 kilometers.

– The operation has gone catastrophically badly for Russia. At the same time, Putin shows a willingness to take large losses and costs, even if the results are not forthcoming, says deputy director Nordrum.

Around half of the original Russian invasion force of 200,000 soldiers are dead or wounded, the Norwegian Intelligence Service estimates.

– There have been very large losses on the Russian side, and there has been a need for Russia to fill these gaps that have remained along the front line, says Nordrum.

300,000 Russians were mass mobilized before Christmas. The personnel have been trained in Russia and Belarus, but the land forces still lack offensive power.

Big losses

– These are personnel with less combat experience and less military experience, and thus the quality of Russian forces decreases, says Nordrum.

The war has major political and economic consequences for Russia, and will continue to weaken the country’s military capability, the Norwegian Intelligence Service believes.

• Russia has used up three-quarters of its modern surface-to-surface missiles in Ukraine.
• Russia has lost around 5,000 armored vehicles, including over 1,000 tanks, and over 100 aircraft.

Russian ground forces on the Kola Peninsula have suffered heavy losses in Ukraine: over 3,000 men were sent into battle, and according to the Norwegian intelligence service, up to half have been lost.

In addition, the Northern Fleet may have lost up to a hundred tanks and armored personnel carriers.

Insufficient equipment and heavy losses on the battlefield contribute to poor morale among Russian forces and weakened conventional capability, according to the Norwegian Intelligence Service.

Nuclear weapons are becoming more important

This means that Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on its strategic nuclear weapons to deter the West, Nordrum explains.

– An important component of Russian strategic forces is located directly east of Finnmark, on the Kola peninsula. These weapons, these systems and this area are becoming more important for Russia, says Nordrum to TV 2.

– When you are conventionally weakened, you have to lean more on the deterrent power that lies in the strategic nuclear weapons, explains the acting head of the Norwegian Intelligence Service.

New silent multi-role submarines increase the Nordflåt’s capacity in the Norwegian Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. According to Norwegian intelligence, longer submarine patrols in the Barents Sea and submarine operations in the Atlantic are carried out from Kola.

On the west side of the Murmansk Fjord, around ten miles from the Norwegian border, is Russia’s most important submarine base.

The Northern Fleet’s 170-metre-long Borej submarines are cornerstones of Russia’s nuclear deterrence strategy. In 20 minutes, strategic missiles fired from these submarines can reach targets on the other side of the northern hemisphere.

Russia’s increased emphasis on nuclear weapons makes it very important for Norwegian intelligence to follow military developments in the northern regions.

Will defend the bastion

As the importance of nuclear weapons increases for Russia, the Northern Fleet’s defense of its military bases on the Kola and Barents Seas becomes more important.

• Norway will end up behind an advanced Russian defense line if Russia takes control in our immediate areas.
• Russia’s so-called bastion defense in the Norwegian Sea will pose a direct and serious threat.
• In the northern regions, in the event of a crisis or war, it will be crucial for Russia to prevent or delay reinforcements from the USA to northern Norway through the sea areas between Greenland, Iceland and Great Britain.

According to Fokus 2023, the Norwegian Intelligence Service monitors the testing and development of these new Russian weapons:

• The Tsirkon hypersonic sea and land target missile is tested from Severodvinsk submarines.
• The new Sarmat intercontinental missile is being tested at Plesetsk, south of Arkhangelsk.
• Russia continues development of the Poseidon torpedo, which can be equipped with a nuclear warhead. It can be tested in the Arctic Ocean during 2023.
• Testing of the Skyfall cruise missile continues. The missile is being developed for nuclear propulsion, which will give it a very long range and increased ability to bypass missile defense.

– A very serious signal

The tension between Russia and the West means that Russia is the biggest nuclear threat to NATO.

– It cannot be ruled out that a local war escalates into a larger conflict, in which Russia, the USA, NATO and Norway become directly involved militarily, writes the Norwegian Intelligence Service in the threat assessment.

Russia can use tactical nuclear weapons, and justify it with the fact that the war in Ukraine threatens Russia’s existence, says Fokus 2023.

– What we have seen, and what we will see, is that Russia is threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons. It is something we have not seen since the Cold War, and it is a very serious signal, says Nordrum.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has regularly threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia.

The US, for its part, has deployed new nuclear weapons in Europe with the intention of deterring Russia from using nuclear weapons.

– Tactical nuclear weapons pose a particularly serious threat in several operational scenarios that may involve NATO countries, writes the E-service in its threat assessment for 2023.

According to the Norwegian Intelligence Service, the more prominent role that Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons will have, will mean that the threshold for nuclear escalation will be lower in nearby Norwegian areas as well.

– NATO expansion surprised Russia

After Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership, Russia has announced that it will strengthen its military presence against the Nordic countries and Norway.

This expansion means that Russia’s land border with NATO more than doubles, from 1,200 to around 2,600 kilometres.

Norway’s role will be important, because additional supplies to Sweden and Finland must go through Norway, says Nordrum.

– The NATO expansion with Sweden and Finland is something that has surprised Russia. This is something they hadn’t foreseen, and something they really don’t want. It will change the entire balance of power in the Baltic Sea region to NATO’s advantage and Russia’s disfavour, says the deputy director of the Norwegian Intelligence Service to TV 2.