Here she is again FT-Column by Premier League expert Leon Kaminsky. We would like to warmly recommend his podcast to you RADIO ENGLANDwhich he runs together with Robin Held.
Looking at the Premier League table makes every fan’s heart warm with excitement. Before the 20th match day, Manchester City or Liverpool FC are not at the top, but Arsenal FC. Defending champions Manchester in second place have surprise team Newcastle (third) breathing down their necks. Manchester United are also getting their hopes up again. Liverpool, a constant favorite for the championship in recent years, is already behind. Who has the best cards in the title race?
Arsenal FC
The North Londoners are halfway up from the top of the table and appear to be favorites to take the title at the moment. With the same number of games played, Arsenal are five points clear of Manchester City. But not only the table lead is an indicator of the outstanding performance so far. The point average per game of Mikel Arteta’s team is 2.59 – extrapolated over the entire season that would be 98 points.
As a reminder, last year’s very close title race between Manchester City and Liverpool drove Pep Guardiola’s team to 93 points – an outstanding result that Arsenal could still surpass as things stand. That the Gunners only lost one game halfway through the season is remarkable and worthy of a champion.
However, not only the numbers speak for the table leader. Mikel Arteta and his side have created a euphoria not seen at Emirates in many years, regularly turning home games into parties. In addition, there is an attractive style of play that does not seem to have any weaknesses worth mentioning and suits every opponent.
The team not only has experience with players like Granit Xhaka or Thomas Partey, but also radiates youthful freshness with top talents like Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. Only the injury of the top transfer Gabriel Jesus was painful, but has been cushioned well by Eddie Nketiah. In addition, there is Martin Odegaard, who, as of now, has legitimate hopes for the player of the season award and, at 24, is the outstanding director of the Gunners.
Arteta has managed the feat of skipping several years of development with his team. From a Champions League contender to a championship favorite in half a year, that’s unique. The last time Arsenal did better than fifth place in the league was in 2016. Dinner is served, the red part of London is eagerly awaiting. Now they just have to pull it off, a starting position like that might not come back anytime soon. For me they are the favourite.
Manchester City
A well-rehearsed top team, a merciless clockwork in which every cogwheel meshes well oiled. Fans of our podcast know how enthusiastic we are about Pep Guardiola’s team. They’ve won four of the last five championships – they’ve dominated the Premier League. Was there ever a real duel with Liverpool FC?
For me they were the big favorites for the title before this season too, thanks to Pep. I’m particularly excited about the mechanics of this squad, on the field everyone seems to know what’s going to happen next. Guardiola seems to be leading them by invisible threads, the Skyblues’ attacks are so perfectly carried out.
With the transfer of Erling Haaland last summer, the last weakness in the city system seemed to have been eliminated: the lack of a striker. Someone who converts the brilliant plays into goals with a regularity. Haaland has so far kept this promise in full, rushing from one start record to the next and has almost achieved cult status on the island.
Despite everything, unexpected as that may be, they are only chasers at the halfway point in the season, five points adrift of Arsenal. Guardiola should still be satisfied with this intermediate result, as the gap was significantly larger in the meantime. Pep will know his big advantage over Arsenal: the depth of the squad.
She could be the golden key down the stretch. In the last league game against Chelsea (1-0) Pep Guardiola replaced Jack Grealish, Riyad Mahrez and Kalvin Phillips in the second half. This bench looks almost like unfair competition compared to many of their league rivals, but is more the result of the transfer policy of a club that has seen the domestic league as the bare minimum of success for a number of years.
While the performance of the offensive players is mostly outstanding, the defense makes a slightly shaky impression at times. With the exception of Manuel Akanji, none of the team’s defenders have reached their top level so far, and this is where Pep will have to start. Glorious offensive power is nice, but also defensive protection, as you can ask Jürgen Klopp.
A five-point deficit seems achievable for this squad, and they also have the experience of previous title wins to their credit. Nevertheless, the impression of slight vulnerability remains, even if only for short periods. It will be exciting to see how City behaves in the role of the hunter rather than the hunted.
Newcastle United
Here the spirits are finally divided. Many consider Newcastle’s achievement in the Champions League to be the maximum this season. I disagree here – Newcastle can become champions. They provide by far the best defense in the league, eleven goals conceded after 18 games are the result of sensational defensive work.
However, this is in no way to detract from the attractive style that Eddie Howe has practiced on the Tyne. It’s more of a notable fringe. When the great José Mourinho joined Chelsea in 2004, despite his ambitions to win the title, his first concern was defense. The 15 goals conceded by his team later in the entire season is probably a forever unattainable value.
While Mourinho’s team concentrated on defending back then, Newcastle now knows how to convince offensively, sometimes even shine, despite all their defensive stability. Top performances from players like Miguel Almirón or Joelinton, who are suddenly among the best players in the league, can be attributed to the outstanding work of the coach – Howe is the previous coach of the season for me, not Arteta.
It remains to be said: The most compact team in the league also has offensive players who are fun and can cause problems for any team. In addition, there is a coach who not only had to publicly moderate the Saudis’ investment, but also formed his team into a title contender without any delay. Should Arsenal and Manchester City weaken or only focus on their duel, Newcastle can end up being the laughing third party. Nobody should underestimate her anymore.
Manchester United
Yes, it’s true, the name Manchester United can no longer be suppressed at this point. Surprisingly for some, the sleeping giant got up and advanced to fourth place. They are level on points with Newcastle United with even one game less. Unbelievable: One of the last 17 competitive games was lost, this form not only makes them Champions League candidates.
Players like Marcus Rashford, Casemiro and Luke Shaw are thriving under Erik ten Haag. Unlike Arsenal and Newcastle, the team consists of many experienced players. The upturn in form after Cristiano Ronaldo’s departure is unmistakable, the team plays almost as if relieved. Defensively, ten Haag has consolidated them, and his transfers are proving to be substantial.
Similar to Newcastle, however, United also have to hope for possible stumbles from Arsenal and Man City. Next up in the league is the Manchester derby against city rivals in second place – a win would put them right in the middle of a title fight.
This is the start of the race, nobody knows the outcome. And even if Pep was to celebrate again at the end – there was a point in time when we spoke of a four-way battle. The Premier League is back in excitement.
