With the war in Ukraine, Finland has become a very popular country in Europe. And for good reason ! On the one hand, this country of 5.5 million inhabitants was incorporated into Tsarist Russia for a long time (from 1809 to 1917) in the form of the Grand Duchy of Finland. On the other hand, it is the only country to have resisted the Red Army during the Second World War during the episode of the Winter War – a real slaughter for the Russians. What’s more, Finland is the country in the European Union that has the longest border with Russia, a country with which it has historical ties that are unrivaled among non-Slavic European countries.
Passing through Paris, Matti Vanhanen met L’Express at the Finnish Embassy, located on Place de Finland, in front of the Esplanade des Invalides. Former journalist, former deputy, former defense minister, this centrist now presides over the parliament of a country that has never allowed itself to be intimidated by Moscow. “After the war will come the time for international justice, he said. We cannot forget what they did.”
L’Express: Your country is the one with the longest border of the European Union with Russia. How did the war impact Finland?
Matti Vanhanen: Trade with our neighbor has collapsed. Before the war, our trade represented 10% of our foreign trade. Today, there are no more exchanges. The main impact concerns the energy sector. Before February 24, 2022, 30% of the latter came from Russia. Today is zero. Fortunately, we have built our “mix” in a balanced way, based on a wide variety of energy suppliers and types. For example, Russia was our sole supplier of natural gas, but this hydrocarbon represented only 5% of our mix. We have replaced it with liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchased on the international market.
In addition, our nuclear power plant [NDLR : de fabrication française et dont la construction remonte aux années 2000] will be running at full speed in the coming weeks. It will then produce 1,600 megawatt hours (mWh), slightly more than what we used to import from Russia: 1,500 mWh. Finally, we have continued to invest in renewable energies (wind, solar) and in nuclear power, which together represent 90% of our electricity (with zero emissions). The war forced us to accelerate our green transition. We still use coal-fired power plants, but a law passed last year provides for their total closure by 2030. In fact, they will close five years early, in 2025.
And what are the defense implications?
The Russians have sent a large part of the troops previously stationed on our borders to Ukraine. It will take them a long time to rebuild their military capability in our immediate environment. In short, it’s very quiet at the borders. In the Baltic and Arctic Seas, on the other hand, Russian activity continues to be as important as during the past fifteen years. Nothing new or spectacular is happening, although the reality is that their submarines are, as always, on high alert.
For our part, we continue to emphasize our territorial defense policy. Five years ago, we decided to increase our level of conscription from 240,000 conscripts to 280,000. This represents the number of people we are able to mobilize immediately in the event of war. Moreover, our army is modernizing. Even before the war, we had ordered 64 new F-35 fighter planes and four major warships to strengthen our navy. But the major fact is that we have decided to join NATO. I cannot even tell you how important this decision is for us and our region.
Twenty-eight countries have ratified your application for membership and that of Sweden, except Turkey and Hungary. Why are Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Viktor Orban dragging their feet?
The real issue is that Sweden and Finland meet all the criteria for membership. We don’t see what more we can do to comply with it. In addition, NATO’s “open door” policy is still in effect. However, according to the latter, any European country can join provided it meets the required conditions. which is the case. Turkey raises the issue of terrorism [NDLR : notamment en accusant la Suède d’abriter des terroristes kurdes du PKK]but the fact is that in this respect our two countries, Sweden and Finland, take the same measures as the other European countries.
There is no difference between our situation and that of other NATO countries. From there, the decision is not in our hands but in those of Ankara and Budapest. But we know how to be patient. We are not a day, a week or even a few months away. We will wait as long as necessary. In the meantime, we take care of our own defense by watching over it at all times.
Some feel that Turkey does not behave like a reliable NATO ally. What do you think ?
We are not able to answer this question because we are only a “candidate” for NATO. It is up to the member countries to define whether Turkey and Hungary actually act, or not, in accordance with the provisions laid down in the Treaty. What is certain is that our accession will significantly modify the security of the Old Continent in Northern Europe. Once we are full members of NATO, we will be able to militarily plan the defense of northern Europe in an even more complex way.
“Even the Finns are now struggling to decipher the Russians”
Finland, which resisted Russia during the Winter War (1940-1941), specializes in combat in cold weather. How does your country help Ukraine?
Our last “help package” is also the most substantial. It amounts to 400 million euros and comes after a dozen others, all of which include two dimensions: civil and military. We do not divulge the nature or the volume of these aids in order to preserve the secrecy on the state of our own weapons stockpiles. But, of course, our military aid and our formations take on a “Finnish” or “Nordic” character, since the “winter war” is indeed one of our areas of expertise.
How do you see the continuation of the war in Ukraine?
With our European partners, we must continue to help this country as long as necessary so that it defends its independence. The time for diplomacy will come one day. It will be up to Ukraine alone to choose the moment; not to other European countries. We are there to support kyiv, not to decide for it. It is essential that the will of Europeans continues to be as strong as it has been so far.
Finns are well placed to understand their neighbours. How do you “read” Russia today?
Alas, even the Finns are now struggling to decipher the Russians. With great patience, for many years we have endeavored to build constructive bilateral cooperation with Russia. All that disappeared with the declaration of war. Our relationship, very old, is reduced to nothing. It will take very long years to rebuild. The crimes committed by Moscow are incomprehensible, unjustifiable and unforgivable. After the war will come the time for international justice. We cannot forget what they did. And the normalization of relations with Russia will take a long, long time.
