After a very turbulent year, economists are now looking into the fortune-telling ball for 2023.
TV 2 has had a chat with Lars Mouland from Nordea, Anders Johansen from Danske Bank, Olav Chen from Storebrand and Kari Due-Andresen from Akershus Eiendom.
They disagree on what will happen to interest rates next year, but they can agree that price growth will be decisive.
The fear of a severe economic downturn is strong again, and then unemployment could rise sharply.
But are there also any bright spots?
UP OR DOWN?: Chen (TV) thinks interest rates will stay high longer than people think. Due-Andresen, on the other hand, believes in interest rate cuts. Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2
Housing prices may fall by double digits
After many years of a very strong housing market, it now seems to be cooling down. From September to November, house prices fell by 6.5 per cent.
Norges Bank, Statistics Norway and Eiendom Norge now believe that prices will fall further between 3.5 and 5 per cent next year.
The economists TV 2 has spoken to believe the fall could be much stronger.
– But what I am also a little worried about is that this could also fall more, says Due-Andresen.
Mouland in Nordea believes house prices will fall by at least ten percent. At the same time, he does not rule out that the drop could reach 20 per cent. This corresponds to roughly the entire house price increase since the end of 2019.
SEVERE FALL: Due-Andresen is concerned that house prices may fall a lot. Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2
Positive with a price drop?
– Then it is also worth asking: How bad is it that house prices are coming down a bit again?.
Johansen asks that question.
He points out that there are many people who can profit from a drop in prices now.
– All younger generations or those who want a larger home, they actually benefit from house prices coming down a bit more. So I’m not really that skeptical about it, even though it’s brutal exactly when it happens.
The chief strategist is nevertheless aware that there are some vulnerable groups. For someone who has just bought a home, the fall can feel uncomfortable.
– And, for example, divorce. That you have to go out and are actually forced to sell and have to buy something less, then it looks very lopsided, says Johansen.
New interest rate jump in the new year
Both brutal jumps in interest rates and sky-high price growth have created many headlines in the past year.
The four economists disagree on what the interest rate peak will be.
– We are perhaps a little more on the pessimistic side, says Johansen from Danske Bank.
DISAGREE: Johansen at Danske Bank is the only one who believes that interest rates will not be raised next year. Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2
While both the economists from Nordea, Storebrand and Akershus Eiendom believe that the interest rate will be raised once more, Johansen at Danske Bank believes that the peak has already been reached.
He believes that the prospect of activity in the economy slowing down in the new year means that the interest rate will be kept calm.
– Maybe we can even get an interest rate cut at the end of next year, says Due-Andresen
However, one of the other economists will write this off as a positive sign.
– If it’s over, it’s as a result of bad news, and then you’re just as badly off. Then it is as a result that people in Norway also start to lose their jobs, says Chen.
THE ECONOMICS: Former Lars Mouland, head of fixed income and credit at Nordea, Anders Johansen, chief strategist at Danske bank, Olav Chen, portfolio manager at Storebrand and Kari Due-Andresen, chief economist at Akershus eiendom. Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2
Can go up sharply
How unemployment will develop next year is something economists are particularly excited about.
Norges Bank believes it should rise slightly from the historically low level it is in Norway now. The government assumed the same when they presented the state budget in October.
But Johansen warns against reading too much into the central bank’s forecasts.
– I am careful not to look so much at what they say, because I know that much of the job they have is actually to create an atmosphere among people that they are in control and that they are doing the right things, says Johansen.
Chen also explains that unemployment is often linked to a recession, i.e. a severe economic downturn.
– When unemployment first increases, it doesn’t just increase a little, then it typically increases quite sharply, says Chen, before pointing out that the labor market in Norway is still good.
Must be prepared
All the economists point out that the uncertainty surrounding next year is great, and much depends on how price inflation develops.
INFLATION: The economists believe that there could be high price growth next year as well. Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2
– The fear is now that it has settled down a bit, and that there will be a completely different price dynamic, says Mouland.
– So people should prepare themselves for the fact that price increases may remain a little higher next year as well?
– Yes, it’s probably a good idea to get used to that idea, says Johansen.
Light on the horizon
– We have a tough period ahead of us now in the next six months, but I think we will get through it well, says Mouland.
POSITIVE: Although the challenges lie ahead, economists believe the future is bright. Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2
Because although the uncertainty is great, there is also something to look forward to, he says. Among other things, there are large investments underway, both in oil and gas, but also in preparedness and defence.
It can ensure that activity in the economy is maintained.
– I think that the worries that people have now, they have perhaps put them a little behind. They probably have other concerns, but I think we will come out of next year a little better than many people imagine now, says Mouland.
