MIAMI.- In many places of USAthe depopulation has become a demographic reality. Recent research by scientists at the University of Illinois at Chicago predicts that some cities in the country could experience a decline in their population, becoming “ghost towns” for the year 2100.
According to the study Nearly 15,000 of America’s nearly 30,000 cities will face population decline caused by factors such as migration, taxes, cost of living, birth rates, employment and even climate change.
The group of scientists analyzed US census data from the years 2000 to 2020, to track demographic trends in 24,295 cities and identify migration estimates and consider the results through other data, such as climate change and the degree of urbanization.
The results, published in an article in the journal Nature Cities suggest that the demographic decline could be between 12% and 23% of the current population of these locations, presenting unprecedented challenges.
What are the cities that could become ghost towns?
The study found that the greatest depopulation will be seen in lower-middle-income localities located in the Northeast and Midwest of the country in some years, as opposed to the Western and Southern regions of the country.
According to the findings, large cities are less likely to have a population decline than small cities in more remote rural areas.
Localities such as Hawaii and the District of Columbia would not suffer any loss of inhabitants. While the south and west of the country will see an increase, especially in cities like Phoenix and Houston, experts predict.
They highlighted that demographic decline is not only observed in small cities, but also in major metropolitan centers such as Detroit, Cleveland and St. Louis, although at a moderate or slow pace. Likewise, southern metropolitan centers such as Columbus, Georgia; “Birmingham, Alabama, and Memphis, Tennessee are also losing population, while cities outside the centers are gaining population,” the researchers said.
According to the Department of Agriculture (USDA), non-metropolitan counties accounted for 3.2% of population loss between 2010 and 2017.
Impact on fundamental services
As stated in the report, the impact of this population reduction would affect the fundamental services of these cities and would imply a loss of basic services such as transit, drinking water, electricity and internet access.
Furthermore, it would trigger unprecedented challenges in service delivery and maintenance of vital infrastructure that would further complicate the situation to accommodate the remaining population, as these essential resources do not exist for these areas.
They propose eliminating growth-based planning
The researchers warned that although immigration could play a vital role, “challenges in resource distribution will persist unless there is a paradigm shift away from planning based solely on growth.” So they highlighted the need to move away from growth-based planning and sustainably maintain and provide infrastructure for all these cities.
“The way we’re planning now is based entirely on growth, but about half of the cities in the United States are depopulating,” said lead author Sybil Derrible, an urban engineer at the University of Illinois at Chicago.
Derríbele’s team pointed out that although population trends for the next 76 years are unknown, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has assured that climate change leaves an open window that closes quickly to mitigate its worst impacts on society. .
On the other hand, a new study that was based on five climate scenarios known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), established by the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment, projects that the populations of 40% of US cities, including New York, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Houston and others could grow by 2100.
@Lydr05
Source: With information from Nature Cities magazine and El Tiempo
