Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko together on a boat trip. Image: www.imago-images.de / imago images
International
Belarus is a small nation and the neighboring country of Ukraine.
A little over nine million People live in the Eastern European country. It is currently coming into focus as Russia’s “close friend” – or rather “the last close friend”.
After all, some allies are increasingly turning their backs on the Kremlin since the illegal war of aggression against Ukraine – such as Kazakhstan.
The Belarus-Russia alliance is ancient and has deep historical, religious and cultural roots.Image: IMAGO/SNA / Gavriil Grigorov
But Belarus – also known as Belarus – is apparently reliable. So much so that it would invade Ukraine alongside Russia? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly appealed to the Belarusian population not to allow themselves to be drawn into the war. Also the USA are watching the situation with concern – especially now that both countries are conducting joint maneuvers.
Russia and Belarus conduct joint air force exercises
By February 1, Belarus and Russia currently conducting joint air force exercises. According to Russian officials, the military drills were intended to prevent escalation and were billed as “purely defensive in nature”. “Yet Telegram’s unofficial military surveillance channels report increased military activity in Belarus”says the political scientist Alla Leukavets in an interview with watson.
Russian and Belarusian troops during joint maneuvers in December 2022.Image: IMAGO / ITAR-TASS
Equipment for the Russian armed forces, including helicopters and military transport aircraft, has been regularly transported to Belarus since the beginning of 2023. “It is not certain that Belarus will be drawn into the war by Russia in the short term,” says Leukavets. The expert conducts research at the “Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies”.
According to her, one important point speaks against Belarus entering the war.
Belarusian population stands in Putin’s way
According to Leukavets, anti-war sentiment in Belarus is very high. According to exiled Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, entering the war would lead to unrest in the country.
The Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tichanovskaya lives in exile. Image: PA Wire / David Parry
“Both Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and the Kremlin are aware of this scenario,” says Leukavets. Therefore, the decision on Belarus’ direct participation in the war in the Kremlin will most likely be seen as a last resort.
But what about indirect participation in the war? The US National Security Council said Belarus “clearly and verifiably” supported Russia in attacking Ukraine.
Russia could plan local operations from Belarusian soil
“Both Russian and Ukrainian war reporters assume that the Kremlin is ‘preparing something’,” says FU conflict observer Nikita Gerasimov Berlin to watson. The Ukrainian general staff is taking concrete steps and having the border with Belarus solidly fortified. However, the political scientist Gerasimov gives the all-clear.
A Polish border guard guards the border wall. Neighboring countries are protecting themselves from Belarus, including Poland.Credit: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire / Attila Huseynov
He does not assume that Russia will launch a second large-scale offensive on Kyiv. Gerasimov says:
“The city is too well fortified. According to current information, the number of Russian troops in Belarus is lower than in February 2022. It seems more likely to me that Russian troops will undertake ‘local operations’ in northern Ukraine – for the purpose of attracting Ukrainian troops from other sectors of the front to distract.”
According to Gerasimov’s observations, the Belarusian troops will not directly participate in the hostilities. “Minsk continues to maintain the narrative of a non-belligerent party”, he says. And that’s where it comes in handy to set up a “private security company” – modeled on the Russian “Wagner Group”.
Belarus is building its own “Wagner Group”.
“From the Belarusian government’s point of view, the establishment of its own private security company, i.e. a mercenary force, is absolutely logical,” says Gerasimov. On the one hand, Belarus is trying not to be drawn directly into the war. On the other hand, it is most likely under pressure from “big brother Russia” to provide active support, says the expert.
The Russian “Group Wagner” is considered unscrupulous, brutal and murderous.Image: IMAGO/imagebroker / imago images
That company “GardServis” was registered in November 2019 and was originally called “BelSecurityGroup”. According to political scientist Leukavets, the security firm owns military weapons and has over 1,000 members. She says:
“Over the past few months, the number of GardServis members has increased significantly. The company hired additional officers, non-commissioned officers and soldiers who served in the special forces and special forces of law enforcement agencies of Belarus.”
According to Gerasimov, Belarus is taking a middle ground with a mercenary force: the country is not sending regular troops and is not officially taking part in the war as a government. At the same time, it can demonstrate to Russia that it supports Moscow’s goals. However, the “combat value” of the “GardServis” can hardly be estimated at the moment.
Wagner versus Mozart – mercenary troops in war
Experience has shown that there can be a big difference between founding a security company that attracts media attention and its real “combat value”. Gerasimov cites the Ukrainian mercenary group “Mozart” as an example. This was created explicitly as an opponent to the Russian “Wagner”. “Mozart” was highly praised in the media, especially by Ukraine. “But in the end they did absolutely nothing on the battlefield,” says Gerasimov.
Belarus expert Leukavets also points out that it is still too early to assess the purpose and power of this formation. What is evident, however, is the current politically tense atmosphere in Belarus.
The Belarusian government is cracking down on its own population
According to Leukavets, a number of new repressive laws have recently been introduced in Belarus. These are aimed at political opponents, for example. The government can revoke the Belarusian citizenship of persecuted persons and conduct trials against them in their absence.
“The political crisis that began after the 2020 elections has not yet been resolved,” says the expert. Long-term ruler Lukashenko had himself declared the winner of the election, which led to mass protests. Many organizations accuse him of electoral fraud.
Police officers detain participants at opposition rally after 2020 elections.Image: www.imago-images.de / imago images
According to Leukavets, Belarusian authorities continue to purge the civil society sector and independent media. She says:
“Hundreds of independent non-profit organizations and public associations, such as the Belarusian Union of Journalists, have had to be dissolved. Throughout the past year, security forces have searched the offices and homes of human rights activists who remained in the country.”
There is no place for independent media. According to the expert, every political initiative is actively pursued. In view of the tense domestic situation, Belarus’ entry into the war would probably not be a good time.
Lukashenko shows himself to be a “political survivor”
The conflict observer Gerasimov also suspects that Belarus does not want to be drawn directly into the war. Lukashenko keeps his pragmatic position.
According to the experts, Lukashenko has not yet given the marching orders for his troops in the direction of Ukraine. Image: BelTA/AP / Andrei Stasevich
According to Gerasimov, he is a “political survivor” who repeatedly manages to maneuver between Russia and the West. Even now he is performing the political feat of presenting himself as Moscow’s most loyal ally and at the same time not becoming a direct party to the war. “How long he will be able to do that remains uncertain,” says Gerasimov.
