The quality of Ukraine’s armed forces, previously seen as a significant advantage over Russia, has been diminished by a year of casualties. Many of the most experienced fighters were killed, writes the “WP”. And that left a painful gap. “The most valuable thing in war is combat experience,” a battalion commander of the 46th Air Assault Brigade told WP.
The commander is identified in the newspaper only by his call sign “Kupol” according to Ukrainian military protocol. “A soldier who has survived six months of combat and a soldier who comes out of a shooting range are two different soldiers. It’s heaven and earth,” said “Kupol” in an interview with “WP”. Unfortunately, there are hardly any more experienced soldiers, they are either already dead or wounded, said “Kupol”. According to Ukrainian military personnel on the spot, the Ukrainian army is suffering from a basic shortage of ammunition on the battlefield, including artillery shells and mortar bombs, according to the WP.
Around 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers dead or injured
The numerous deployments of the inexperienced Ukrainian conscripts brought in to make up for the losses have changed the profile of the Ukrainian armed forces, WP writes. US and European sources estimate that around 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or wounded since Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine began.
According to these estimates, around 200,000 soldiers were killed or wounded on the Russian side. Russia has roughly three times the population of Ukraine. Ukraine keeps the exact number of its soldiers killed or wounded secret – even from Western supporters.
Soldiers are trained separately for offensive
However, the current situation on the battlefield may not reflect the overall picture of the Ukrainian armed forces, the US newspaper said. Kiev is currently separately training troops for the upcoming expected counter-offensive and is deliberately withholding them from current battles, such as the defense of Bakhmut, a US Pentagon official told the newspaper.
The head of the presidential administration, Andriy Yermak, takes the same line. The state of Ukraine’s armed forces does not diminish his optimism about an imminent counteroffensive. “I don’t think we’ve exhausted our potential,” said Jermak to the “WP”. “I think that in every war there comes a time when you have to prepare new personnel,” Yermak said. And that happens.
Bachmut perseverance rated differently
The commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, Oleksandr Syrskyj, said the fierce battle for Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine was helping buy time to prepare a counteroffensive against the Russian army. The longer Russian troops are tied up in Bakhmut, the less they can go into defensive mode – that is, not deploy elsewhere and secure those positions against the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.
However, some experts question the point of further fighting for Bakhmut. Ukrainian military analysts were critical of the holding on to the Bakhmut battle. “We have information that the government is sending reservists to Bakhmut who were trained in Western countries. And we are suffering casualties among the reservists we intended to use for counter-offensives,” said Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov. “We could lose everything we wanted to use for these counter-offensives here,” he said.
High symbolic value
Ukrainian military historian Roman Ponomarenko said the threat of encirclement at Bakhmut was “very real”. “If we just give up on Bakhmut and withdraw our troops and equipment, nothing bad can happen… if they close the ring, we will lose men and equipment,” Ponomarenko told Ukraine’s Radio NV.
Due to the high losses in the war that has been going on for more than a year, some Ukrainian officers would also question the expected Ukrainian spring offensive, according to the “WP”. Although experts doubt the city’s strategic importance, the battle has now acquired symbolic value for both sides.
Moscow wants to raise the draft age
Russia could be in a far worse situation than Ukraine, according to WP. During a NATO meeting last month, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said 97 percent of the Russian army was already stationed in Ukraine. According to the minister, Moscow was suffering “as in the First World War”.
A legislative initiative in Russia to increase the draft age has already been introduced in parliament. According to the text of the law, from 2026 onwards, conscription to the military should only take place at the age of 21, the Interfax news agency reported on Monday. At the same time, the maximum age is to be raised from the current 27 years to 30 years.
The increase in the minimum age from the current 18 years will therefore take place in stages. From next year, recruits should only be drafted at the age of 19, and from 2025 at the age of 20. If someone wants to join the army voluntarily at 18, they should keep this option, they say. The upper limit, on the other hand, is to be raised directly to 30 years without any intermediate steps.
Officially no combat conscripts
In December 2022, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had already announced corresponding changes to the draft age. Observers explained this with the planned increase in the Russian armed forces from the current 1.15 to 1.5 million soldiers. Independent media pointed out – also against the background of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine – that the new regulation of the army could bring around 300,000 additional conscripts due to the different birth cohorts. Officially, Russia does not send conscripts to war. However, the conscripts can take on tasks to secure the hinterland.
Recruitment: Large cities relatively spared
According to the British government, the Russian leadership is largely shielding residents of large cities from the aftermath of the war. A Defense Ministry report said on Sunday that Russia’s richest cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg, were relatively spared from the “extremely heavy losses.”
In many eastern regions, the number of soldiers killed is probably more than 30 times as high as in Moscow. Ethnic minorities are particularly affected. For example, in the city of Astrakhan, 75 percent of the fallen belonged to the Tatar and Kazakh populations.
Shielding the wealthier and more influential parts of the population will probably remain a main concern of the Russian military leadership, according to British intelligence services. The Ministry of Defense in London has been publishing daily information on the course of the war since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, citing intelligence information. Moscow accuses London of a disinformation campaign.
Lithuania: Russia can continue war for two years
According to the Lithuanian secret services, Russia is able to continue the war in Ukraine for another two years. “We estimate that the resources available to Russia today would be enough to fight a war with the same intensity as today for two more years,” Colonel Elegijus Paulavicius of the Baltic EU-NATO country’s military intelligence service said last Week.
Lithuania borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Russia’s ally Belarus. According to the intelligence services, the war in Ukraine only limits Russia’s military capabilities in the area around the former Koenigsberg and in western Russia to a certain extent and temporarily. Russia’s “unrestricted ability” to send its troops to Belarus also has a negative impact on the security of Lithuania and other NATO countries in the region. That shortens the warning time, Paulavicius said, according to the BNS agency.
