Between 650,000 and 850,000 demonstrators are expected in the street this Wednesday on the occasion of the eighth day of mobilization against the pension reform. The authorities expect a hardening of the movement in the event of a forced passage.
Will the pension reform obtain a majority in the National Assembly? Will the government be forced to use section 49.3 to have the text adopted? Beyond the political consequences of the application of the reform, these questions inhabit the intelligence services and the authorities from a security point of view.
According to a note from territorial intelligence that BFMTV was able to consult, the use of 49-3 by the government before the National Assembly raises fears of a radicalization of the mobilization. The “anti-democratic feeling” felt against this reform “would be reinforced by the use of 49.3, likely to contribute to reviving the dispute and potentially its radicalization”, writes the territorial intelligence.
Declining protesters
Between 650,000 and 850,000 demonstrators are expected this Wednesday for the eighth day of mobilization against the reform. In Paris, between 50,000 and 80,000 people could march through the streets, according to territorial intelligence. A figure down from the mobilization of March 7 when 81,000 people had mobilized in the capital, according to the Ministry of the Interior.
The intelligence services also estimate that between 400 and 800 yellow vests and 300 to 500 radical elements will join the union procession. A few incidents enamelled the processions on March 7th. In Rennes, on the sidelines of the demonstration, a group of 400 individuals positioned themselves at the head of the procession and dotted the route with “exactions”, according to the prefecture.
In Nantes, as in Lille, scuffles also erupted at the end of the demonstration, when the procession dispersed. In Paris, the police headquarters reported a thousand disruptors. Damage was committed along the course of the event.
The fear of radicalization
“We are facing a monumental determination, assures a Marseille policeman. But in the demonstrations, it is going very well. There are a few events at the end of the procession but it is an epiphenomenon.” For him, if the pension reform were adopted by the use of article 49.3, this radicalization would result in a situation “which is tense on the blockages”.
In addition to the mobilization of garbage collectors, trade union actions will constitute an important part of the trade union strategy. On Tuesday, for example, the CGT Énergie Rhône tried to cut off the electricity at the Lyon Part-Dieu station, before taking over the management of the Renaissance deputy Anne Brugnera. Permanence put in “energy sobriety” according to the trade unionists.
Elected officials as a target?
These actions against elected officials could thus multiply according to territorial intelligence, and in particular the elected officials who will vote Thursday for the reform who could be “arrested in a virulent way during their travels or in their offices”. Nuclear power stations and hydroelectric power stations could also become targets.
While territorial intelligence also notes that the Yellow Vests are present everywhere and could organize actions of free tolls, road blockages and damage to radars, Philippe Martinez assures that, regardless of the legislative path of the text, “anger is there” and that the demonstrators will continue to express it.
“If the government goes through 49.3, the least we can say is that it will pose a serious problem of respect for what is happening in the streets”, concludes the leader of the CGT.
