At the beginning of the last week of the year, the blue dollar accentuated its upward trend, rising $6 and closing at $346with which he reached a new record face valuein the midst of a greater demand from savers and a shortage of supply.
Meanwhile, the financial dollars traded in the stock market – Cash with Liquidation and MEP remained relatively stable, ending at $334.85 and $327.62 respectively, although the operators indicated that “today’s values are not representative due to to the United States holiday.
In turn, the Central Bank registered a net purchase balance of US$23 million in the official exchange market, while the soybean sector settled foreign currency for just US$38.751 million.
That settlement amount is the second lowest since soybean dollar launched 2although analysts considered it “logical” due to the holiday in the United States
Blue dollar: new record
The blue dollar deepened its upward path this Monday after the jump of $19 that it had verified last week, and in the special the rebound of $10 last Friday in the greater demand and in a scenario of political tension that triggered the ruling of the Supreme Court regarding the Coparticipation of the City of Buenos Aires.
The blue had started the day low, around $338-$339, but then reversed and began to rise: it was quoted at $348 in the City of Buenos Aires, and at some tables it was sold for up to $350.
The blue dollar jumped $6 on Monday and closed at a record face value of $346
In this sense, the economist Frederick Glustein He commented that before the jump in “some caves stopped selling because they expect it to jump even more and they buy at $341/342 to make a difference”.
The financial analyst christian buteler He maintained that “some tables may stop selling to see if they can get more money, but I did not see it as something general in the market,” while remarking that “There is a lot of price dispersion, in the downtown it was $348, and in Greater Buenos Aires I got to see it at $352”. But he clarified that the reference value that is usually taken is that of the City of Buenos Aires.
The rebound of the blue occurred despite the fact that President Alberto Fernández announced today that the national government is going to abide by the Supreme Court ruling, reversing the decision not to comply with it.
In this regard, Buteler stressed that “this decision to abide by the ruling should bring calm to the market instead of nervousness.”
In any case, the political noises on this matter continue because the head of the Buenos Aires government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, rejected the payment with bonds and affirmed that the national government continues not to comply with the ruling of the Court on Coparticipation.
Blue dollar: much demand and little supply
Thus, Buteler unlinked the jump in the blue from those political ups and downs, and assured that the escalation of the informal dollar is “by genuine demand“of small and large savers “who are going to the dollar for coverage, and for tourism expenses for vacations.”
They attribute the escalation of the blue “to the supply vacuum” in that market due to the start of the dollar for foreign tourists
Glustein attributed the rise in the blue to that there is “few sales (less supply) and a strong increase in demand for tourism, a surplus of pesos (that goes) to dollars that is common on this date and later in the political situation that does not help“.
“There are pesos in circulation that are not going to consumption or rates in pesos. In addition, it is seen that the price is cheap for the long time it was stable. Holidays, dollarization run but also at a political level it helps to turn on (the blue) the issue Coparticipation and the issuance of bonds, it is more issuance, the money is worth less,” he argued.
Also, the operator Gustavo Quintana He stated that “seasonally in the last fortnight of December it tends to rise”.
Within this framework, Quintana stated: “Here Political factors may have come together derived from the decision to ignore the Court’s ruling and the way the government now had to accept it, and also, the tourist dollar is still above the blue and this also pushes the demand”.
For his part, Salvador Vitellia specialist in finance and agribusiness, maintained that “with the measure of recognizing a higher exchange rate, the MEP, the receptive tourists, takes away a lot of offer to the parallel dollar because they no longer have as much incentive to go informal with the risks that means having to carry cash.
Emiliano Anselmi, leader of the PPI macroeconomic team, also linked it to the entry into force of the dollar for foreign tourists: “There is a supply gap, because basically the tourists that supplied the market are no more, and it has very little depth, and there is a lot of demand for black silver that wants to be dollarized and cannot do so through the formal channel”.
For some analysts, another factor of tension on the dollar is the conflict over the ruling on CABA’s co-participation
Blue dollar: how will it continue?
anselmi stressed that the price of blue if compared to the MEP “It is getting quite wild, the misalignment is marked, it should not exceed these values much more.”
In this context, the analyst affirmed that “the bigger this gap is, the more attractive” the loop becomes that consists of having people go to buy from the MEP to supply the blue “and make a profit.
For butelerthe value of the blue today “is not a reference for the United States holiday either, because there are people who arbitrate between the blue, the MEP and the CCL” for which he speculated that the price of the informal dollar “I could download something tomorrow”.
However, Glustein admitted: “I thought that $350 was going to be an acceptable ceiling for the blue at the end of the year, but the scenario is different and it can continue to rise.”
Soybean dollar: low level of purchases by the BCRA and little liquidation
For Buteler, the low volume of liquidation of soybeans of just US$38.74 million this Monday “It is logical because of the holiday, it is not a day that can be taken as a reference because there is not an important part operating.”
of equal vision, Quintana stressed that it is “an amount lower than the average income for the month but that is fully justified by the impossibility of operating abroad due to the holiday in the United States”and estimated that “tomorrow we will surely see a greater amount”.
The soybeans liquidated US$38 million today, the second lowest amount since the soybean dollar started 2
From the hand of the soybean dollar 2, The BCRA has accumulated net purchases of US$916 million so far in December, and since the debut of the measure on November 28, it has a positive balance of US$1,254 million.
Meanwhile, since the implementation of the measure, The soybean sector contributed foreign currency for more than US$2,430 million compared to the goal of obtaining US$3,000 million.
In that sense, Vitelli remarked that “it is the second worst income of daily dollars since the scheme began, only surpassed by half a holiday on December 20, which had entered some US$9 million,” while commenting that “Today the versions continued” in the market that the scheme that sets an exchange rate of $230 for soybeans could be extended for a few more days.
The analyst also called “capricious” the CIARA statement on Friday that ensures that the foreign exchange inflow objective of US$3,000 million had been metto which Economy Minister Sergio Massa had alluded when he announced the soybean dollar 2
“CIARA indicated on Friday that there was a foreign exchange settlement of the entire oilseed and cereal complex that exceeded the expected objective,” Vitelli said, referring to the statement from the company, which detailed that since the launch of the soybean dollar 2, US$3 have been liquidated. 654 million
“The issue is that you have to see with what yardstick things are measured because the government was thinking of obtaining the US$3,000 million soybeans. And that has not yet been obtained,” stressed the analyst who explained that the amount at which refers CIARA includes “the rest of the dollars paid by exporters for corn, wheat, etc.”.
