Before counter-offensive: Crucial weeks for Ukraine

The next few weeks will be crucial because, according to Western experts, Ukraine has only one chance this year to launch a counterattack and recapture Russian-occupied territory. Since the fall, the Ukraine war has become a war of attrition. Before and during the winter, both sides literally dug themselves into their positions. The Russian army built several lines of retreat in the areas it occupied and heavily fortified them to prevent a rapid advance by Ukraine, as in late summer at Kherson.

Neither country has sovereignty over Ukrainian airspace. Russia failed to do so early in the invasion, both sides now have too good air defenses to change that. Therefore, the conflict is mainly conducted as a ground war, in other words: the artillery is decisive. Ukraine, itself a major arms exporter before the war, has fully geared all of its remaining production capacities to its own army.

Ammunition as an uncertainty factor

The decisive factor, however, is the supply of weapons from the West. In addition to tanks, which will also be crucial for an offensive, there is a lack of ammunition. Western stockpiles – artillery warfare was no longer envisaged in NATO’s scenarios – have now been severely depleted. Production is being ramped up, but that will take time. To illustrate the problem: The USA wants to produce 90,000 grenades per month in the future, but according to the New York Times it will take two years to reach this capacity. And the USA is the NATO country with by far the strongest armaments industry. For its part, London is trying to buy up stocks of Russian or Soviet ammunition from around the world, which Kiev primarily needs.

Both sides, but above all Ukraine, are now saving on ammunition because it is so scarce. As the “NYT” reported, the Pentagon estimates that the Ukrainian army is currently firing around 6,000 shells per day – in Bakhmut and along the entire almost 1,000-kilometer front. The Ukrainian side is also particularly reluctant to save soldiers, ammunition and other war material for the planned counter-offensive.

Difficult decision about Bachmut

The question of whether Ukraine should continue to hold out in Bakhmut or give up the small town must be seen above all in this context. According to US military expert Rob Lee, tying down Russian troops there and inflicting as many casualties on them as possible was the right calculation. In the meantime, the ratio of killed soldiers – according to Lee there were at times six killed Russian soldiers to one Ukrainian – is significantly less favorable for Ukraine.

This has to do with the fact that Russian units managed to occupy the hills near Bakhmut and the Ukrainian soldiers who remained in the city found only poor protection in the buildings on the outskirts without basements. Lee sees a final decision by Kiev on where to stay or withdraw near – also because of the onset of thaw, which makes a withdrawal more difficult.

EU grenades too late for offensive?

At the beginning of the week, the EU states agreed to supply Ukraine with one million new artillery shells – but within twelve months. As important as the promise is, given the schedule, the counter-offensive expected in the first half of the year will probably have to be carried out entirely or largely without these supplies.

And Kiev will only have the chance of an offensive – simply because of the number of available soldiers and weapons. Kiev wants to avoid a war of attrition on its own territory with all its consequences. Unlike Russia’s ruler Vladimir Putin, who, more than a year after the attack on Ukraine, is still not encountering any significant resistance in his own country, despite the many dead soldiers and the economic difficulties.

ISW sees Russian offensive flagging

The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wants to see evidence that Russia’s spring offensive in eastern Ukraine is about to peak and will soon flag. The balance so far from the Russian point of view is meager: some small gains in territory, but no strategically important goals achieved, especially not the conquest of the entire Donbas.

The institute cites, among other things, Ukrainian information that heavy losses near the frontline city of Wuhledar have severely weakened Russian attack capabilities in Donetsk Oblast. The ongoing offensives in the early months of 2023 would have yielded no more than a few tactical gains. With the partial mobilization in September, Russia mobilized 300,000 soldiers.

Ukraine ‘in good position’ for counter-offensives

As soon as the Russian offensive subsides, Ukraine has good prospects of regaining the military initiative, the ISW was confident in its assessment of the situation.

“If 300,000 Russian soldiers were not able to give Russia a decisive offensive superiority in Ukraine, then mobilizing additional forces in future waves of mobilizations this year is very unlikely to produce a significantly different result,” the institute wrote. “Ukraine is therefore in a good position to take the initiative again and launch counter-offensives on critical sections of the front,” it added.

Lightning success unlikely

But Western military experts have also been emphasizing for months that such rapid and far-reaching recaptures as in the case of Kharkiv this year will hardly be possible. The Russian army has built multiple lines of retreat on many parts of the front line, and it also uses less ammunition on the defensive. Russia has also learned to deal with superior Western weapon systems such as the US HIMARS rocket launchers and has relocated ammunition depots to areas out of range.

In December, in an analysis for the US think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute, Lee and his US colleague Michael Kofman emphasized what will be decisive for the further course of the war: the arms deliveries – and whether Russia will be better able than before to recruit the new recruits train, integrate into the combat units and improve cooperation between different units.