At the end of December, the most populous country in the world had 1.411 billion inhabitants, around 850,000 fewer than a year earlier, the statistics office in Beijing announced on Tuesday. The birth rate was only given as 6.77 newborns per 1,000 people – this is the lowest it has been in decades and is one of the lowest in the world.
The death rate was 7.37 per 1,000 people. This results in a population growth minus of 0.6 to 1,000 people, reported the statistics office. The steadily declining number fell into the single digits for the first time two years ago. According to the statistics office, there are now 9.56 million births and 10.41 million deaths.
Last decline under Mao Zedong
The independent researcher Yi Fuxian from the University of Wisconsin, who has been critical of Chinese population development for a long time, believes that the current figures are still embellished. According to his calculations, the Chinese population has been shrinking for four years. At least he sees an official acknowledgment that the decline came about ten years earlier than previously predicted by the government. Unlike the famines of 1960 and 1961, however, the trend is now “irreversible,” says Yi.
According to this information, the population last shrunk in 1960 and 1961. At that time, China was suffering from the worst famine in its modern history. This was caused by the industrialization and collectivization program proclaimed by state founder Mao Zedong, the “Great Leap Forward”. In 2021, the population had grown by 450,000 people.
men in the majority
With a total of 722 million individuals, men are still clearly in the majority. They faced around 689.7 million women. This is a consequence of the one-child policy, which has been in place since 1979 and has since been abolished, and a traditional preference for male offspring who should carry on the family name.
The abolition of controversial birth control in 2016 led to a slight increase in births only for a short time. Having only one child is the social norm in China today. Two generations have never experienced it any differently, so it is deeply rooted in society.
In addition, experts see the high costs of living space, education and health care in China as well as the dwindling willingness to marry as the actual reasons for the sharp decline in the birth rate and the aging of the population. The coronavirus pandemic, which has been going on for three years, created further uncertainties that are likely to have accelerated the trend. Almost every fifth young person between the ages of 16 and 24 is unemployed in China’s cities.
Government wants to take countermeasures
In response to the rapidly aging population, China wants to boost the birth rate. “We will set up a political system to increase birth rates,” said State and Party leader Xi Jinping in a speech at the 20th Communist Party Congress in the fall. For years the government has been trying to encourage citizens to have more children.
In 2021, three children were finally allowed. Since then, the government has also been trying to make it easier for young couples to care for children. The cost of education has been reduced. Financial aid has been granted, and maternity and parental leave have been made easier, as many women fear that motherhood will negatively affect their careers.
expected labor shortage
Due to aging, fewer and fewer working people in the second largest economy have to take care of more and more old people. Every fifth Chinese woman or every fifth Chinese is already older than 60 years. At the same time, the population group in the statistically considered working age between 15 and 59 years continues to decline. If in 2020 five employees between the ages of 20 and 64 supported an older person over 65, in 2050 there will only be 1.5 employees.
“China’s demographic and economic prospects are bleaker than expected,” Yi said. China will have to go through a contraction. “Without a social safety net, without family security, a pension crisis will turn into a humanitarian catastrophe,” Yi warns. The labor surplus that fueled China’s economic miracle as the “workbench of the world” is now being followed by a labor shortage: “China’s manufacturing sector is becoming understaffed and aging – and declining as fast as Japan’s,” says Yi.
Economy misses target
Ironically, China also reported weak economic growth on Tuesday. According to official figures, the economy grew by just 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022. In 2022 as a whole, the second largest economy grew by three percent. This means that the growth target of around 5.5 percent set by the government was missed.
The Chinese economy was heavily burdened in the past year by the strict zero-Covid policy and the associated lockdowns. In December, the leadership in Beijing made an abrupt about-face and abolished most of the CoV measures after a good three years. Since then, however, the virus has been spreading rapidly in the country, which is now also having a negative impact on economic activity.
