Short-term ex-prime minister Kiril Petkov wants to run with his party We are continuing the change (PP) together with the party Democratic Bulgaria (DB). In the most recent polls, the alliance was around 25 percent, almost on a par with the politically largely isolated centre-right Citizens for a European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party led by ex-Prime Minister Boyko Borissov.
According to the latest survey by Alpha Research, third place is also contested. The liberal Turkish Party (DPS) is just under 14 percent, as is the radical nationalist and pro-Russian Rebirth Party, which is likely to increase significantly. The Russia-friendly Socialist Party (BSP) stands at eight percent. According to the survey, around 15 percent of voters are still undecided.
The Communist Party-born BSP, formerly an influential force in Bulgaria, has been losing votes in recent years. In addition, a split-off from the party as Die Linke is now running for election. They are currently around three percent and would therefore not make the four percent hurdle.
Criticism and suffrage reform
Even after the last election in autumn last year, the votes of the pro-Western parties GERB, PP and DB would have been sufficient for a stable government. However, Petkov and his allies refused to form a coalition with Borisov. They accuse him of corruption and abuse of office during his reign.
They also criticized Borisov for the electoral reform that was implemented at the end of last year with the votes of the socialists. In doing so, GERB “cleared the way for election manipulation”. The reform made it possible again to vote not only with machines in the polling stations, but also with paper ballots. In the past, falsified results and stolen votes in elections had been repeatedly reported with paper ballots.
GERB, PP and the socialist BSP have been tasked with forming a government one after the other by President Radev over the past few months. All three failed. The mistrust of the most important of the eight parties represented in Parliament is too great.
Short-term prime minister overthrown by motion of no confidence
The consequence is a succession of transitional governments from 2021 – each appointed by President Radew. The only exception was Prime Minister Petkov’s six-month term in office until June 2022. His rise to political power came as a result of the anti-corruption protests against the GERB government under Borisov. However, his government was overthrown by a motion of no confidence from the opposition.
The President has ensured continuity in Bulgaria’s political landscape in recent months. The former fighter pilot was re-elected for his second term in late 2021. Many observers are convinced that he is benefiting from the political instability.
Expert: President keeps rudder in hand
“With the next transitional cabinet, he will continue to rule the country as a presidential rather than a parliamentary republic,” said political scientist Ljubomir Stefanow. Radew keep the rudder in his hand. The Bulgarian expert Dimitar Bechev from Carnegie Europe argued similarly in an interview with the magazine “Politico”. The political upheaval put Radev in a position to unexpectedly have a firm grip on power.
It also gives him the “chance of worldwide recognition because he represents the country at all important events and forums”. The expert also points to an institutional problem: the transitional governments appointed by Radev are responsible for planning the next elections, but the law does not provide for any control mechanisms for the president and his representatives.
Arms deliveries to Ukraine disputed
In addition, there is the emphatically pro-Russian demeanor of the president in the country. For Bechew, however, this is primarily populist rhetoric for pro-Russian voters. Bulgaria traditionally has the strongest ties of any EU member to Russia. Internationally, some observers are convinced that his rhetoric is less pro-Russian. Radev seeks constant compromise between Russia and the West and avoids direct confrontation. He repeatedly called those who demanded arms supplies to Ukraine “warmongers”.
Just last fall, the pro-Western forces in parliament pushed through military aid for Ukraine. Petkov resorted to detours during his brief tenure to covertly arm Ukraine in the face of opposition from pro-Russian forces in his coalition. The arms deliveries to Ukraine are a controversial issue in the election campaign.
Parties such as the pro-Russian rebirth, with their campaign against arms deliveries to Ukraine and the introduction of the euro, have made the anti-Western narrative socially acceptable in Bulgaria, the Bulgaria expert Vessela Cherneva from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) analyzed in an interview with “Deutsche Welle”. However, the election results show that the majority of the Bulgarian population adheres to the country’s pro-Western orientation. The pro-Western parties form the majority.
disinformation as a problem
Nevertheless, Bulgaria is fighting with pro-Russian disinformation, as a current study by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) shows. Bulgaria has been exposed to well-organized campaigns since the Ukraine war, reported the “Süddeutsche Zeitung” (“SZ”). It is not for nothing that a KAS conference on disinformation in south-eastern Europe is taking place in the Bulgarian capital Sofia on Tuesday.
There was additional uncertainty from bomb threats at schools in Bulgaria a few days before the election. The main assumption is that it is about “hybrid attacks” that are “in some way connected to Russia,” said Acting Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev. However, the information received did not pose a real threat. Nevertheless, dozens of schools and the Economic University in Sofia were evacuated. Many polling stations are located in schools.
instability with consequences
Unclear political conditions not only provide a breeding ground for disinformation. Political observers also fear that the frequent elections will undermine democracy. The long government vacuum is “against the spirit of the constitution”, judged the Bulgaria expert Tscherneva to the “Frankfurter Rundschau”.
The political stalemate is already having a concrete impact on Bulgaria’s further development. The planned entry into the euro zone in 2024 could be postponed to 2025 due to a lack of votes in parliament. According to the interim government, parliament was unable to pass necessary reforms, for example on money laundering.
There is also a lack of continuity in the fight against the rising cost of living, and the efficient implementation of the EU post-pandemic recovery plan may be hampered. The pressure to find a government this time is high.
