After seven difficult election defeats from 2019 to 2021 and the already positive election in Tyrol, a triumph followed in Lower Austria on Sunday. With Udo Landbauer at the helm, the Blues, strongly supported by federal party leader Herbert Kickl, took advantage of the situation that was favorable for them: They got the biggest plus in the country, their best result by far and for the first time they came second ahead of the SPÖ.
According to Praprotnik, the FPÖ success is largely due to the CoV crisis. The pandemic has drawn a kind of “line” compared to everything that happened before. Because the FPÖ was the only party to position itself against compulsory vaccination, it represented an alternative for many people on a very emotional topic. “We often see that the FPÖ represents a unique position”, that was also the case in EU election campaigns.
Many ÖVP voters voted for FPÖ
The ÖVP has lost almost ten percent of the vote since the last state election in 2018. According to an analysis of the flow of voters, a large proportion of the ÖVP voters at the time opted for the FPÖ this time.
Alternative in times of “great political dissatisfaction”
The FPÖ has always been very good at “offering a credible alternative in a situation of great political dissatisfaction”. This is also clearly reflected in the election day surveys, says Praprotnik. For those who rate social developments as negative, “we’re actually talking about an absolute majority”.
In times of economic uncertainty, voters also assess their personal balance sheet. “If you’re satisfied, you’re more likely to choose the incumbent, if you’re not satisfied with that, you’re more likely to choose another party,” says the political scientist. Here the SPÖ must ask itself how it can be that one cannot score points on core socialist issues such as inflation.
As long as there are personnel debates in the federal party and the party cannot solve these problems itself, the SPÖ is no longer believed to be able to solve substantive problems.
FPÖ top candidate for very few decisive
In the survey of motives for voting by the SORA and ISA institutes for ORF, it becomes clear that for the FPÖ voters it was hardly a choice of person, but rather a choice of topic. For more than a third, the substantive standpoints of the party were decisive. Only two percent stated that they made their choice because of the top candidate Landbauer.
According to pollster Peter Hajek, the motives for the election showed that it was a mistake to reduce the FPÖ to the issue of asylum. The topic of coronavirus is “still there”, albeit less strongly, and the FPÖ was also able to occupy the new number one topic, inflation.
The fact that the Freedom Party in Lower Austria has managed to position itself as an “anti-corruption party” despite its own affairs in the recent past is, for political advisor Thomas Hofer, a “stair joke of history”. One thing is clear with the election result: Kickl is firmly in the saddle, said Hofer.
Record result on previously difficult patch
A total of 24.19 percent voted for the FPÖ on Sunday. This is by far the best result in the country, which until now has been a rather difficult place for the FPÖ (which only entered the state parliament in 1988). They had never exceeded 16.08 percent a year in Lower Austria, at the peak of the wave of success under Jörg Haider.
For the first time, the FPÖ is also second in Lower Austria, ahead of the SPÖ. Overall, in the 142 state elections in which it and the “Association of Independents” have taken part since 1949, it came second 18 times; in Carinthia she was also first three times. The FPÖ was also able to overtake the SPÖ in Tyrol four months ago (despite a smaller increase there).
The Freedom Party can now go into the upcoming state elections in Carinthia and Salzburg in the spring with some confidence. Large losses, as they have experienced since Heinz-Christian Strache’s “Ibiza video” appeared in 2019, are no longer a threat. Now the trend reversal for the Freedom Party, led by Kickl since June 2021 – with extremely edgy and aggressive opposition politics – seems to have succeeded.
