The country’s largest opposition party, the moderate Islamist Ennahdha, spoke of the “kidnapping of Saied’s opponents”: Several known opponents of Said have been arrested since Saturday, most recently Noureddine Bhiri, one of the leading Ennahdha representatives.
But the arrests go beyond direct political opponents, it is a broad list of people who spoke out against Saied or mobilized protests against him. For example, an entrepreneur, the head of a radio station, a former finance minister, judges and diplomats were also arrested. Their lawyers say they were arrested on suspicion of “attacking state security.”
“Arab Spring” is fading
Since the beginning of the “Arab Spring” in 2011, Tunisia has been regarded as a beacon of hope for democratization in the region. On January 14, 2011, the autocratic President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was deposed, for many the beginning of a democratic revolution. But the progress is now being reversed one by one.
Saied, who was elected in 2019, has continuously expanded his skills in recent years. In 2021 he ousted the government and parliament, invoking emergency laws. At the time he said that political standstill, corruption, the economic crisis and the pandemic required a complete restart, writes Deutsche Welle.
But this new start was accompanied by a constitutional change that practically cemented Saied in office. For example, he can dismiss the government and the Prime Minister without the consent of Parliament, and conversely, the MPs can no longer dismiss the President. He can also intervene directly in the judiciary and block the appointment of judges, for example. Saied himself doesn’t want to hear anything about a coup and has always said he wanted to prevent “chaos” – but Tunisia is far from calm.
Parliamentary election turned into a farce
Because the mood has changed: many of Saied’s former supporters are now fighting back against the president. As recently as January, thousands of people took to the streets in the capital, Tunis, to protest against Saied’s government.
Ironically, the last parliamentary election turned into a farce, in the second round at the end of January only 11.3 percent of those entitled to vote cast their votes, the lowest voter turnout since the “Arab Spring”. The opposition called for a boycott because parliament has little power anyway. The low participation is undoubtedly also an expression of the disappointment of the Tunisians.
Crises affected standard of living
While Saied initially received support for his authoritarian course – tacitly even from the opposition and the powerful trade union confederation UGTT – there is now nothing left of it. Saied’s promise to improve conditions in the country did not come true, and the global crises made the situation even worse.
Inflation is over ten percent, but the population was already suffering from the consequences of an economic crisis – additionally fueled by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Because Tunisia is heavily dependent on oil and grain imports, as the news agency AFP writes.
More and more people are therefore making their way to Europe to find work and prospects there. Tunisia’s leadership is currently relying solely on help in the form of a billion-euro loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to avert national bankruptcy. The national debt is more than 100 percent of the gross domestic product.
Hope for united opposition
The situation in the country is also made more difficult by the fact that both Saied’s supporters and the opposition are completely fragmented. “The main feature of the political scene at the moment is a high degree of fragmentation,” Tunisian political scientist Mohamed-Dhia Hammami told DW. “That will make any kind of stabilization – whether democratic or autocratic – almost impossible.”
Activists hope the opposition can agree on a common candidate to run against Saied. Tunisia expert Monica Marks told DW that “a critical mass has not yet been reached” as far as the opposition is concerned. The presidential election is scheduled for 2024 – and if Saied’s autocratic course does not intensify further, it could become a turning point for Tunisia.
