For months the world has been waiting eagerly for the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. The weather isn’t cooperating at the moment.
But according to Australian military expert Mick Ryan, the so-called “H-hour”, the start of a planned offensive, is “undoubtedly” imminent. On Twitter, Ryan uses seven points to explain what determines the success or failure of the counter-offensive.
Seven points will determine the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive
Point 1: Ukraine manages a surprise. Russian troops are preparing for the Ukrainian offensive and are fortifying their positions. Should Ukraine nevertheless manage to surprise the invaders with advances, Ryan says this would be a point for a successful offensive.
Point 2: Ukraine destroys Russian reserves. A point that Ukraine must reach before the offensive begins, says Ryan. Russian reserves of soldiers and equipment must be destroyed. As a result, Ukraine deprives Russian troops of the ability to respond to Ukrainian attacks.
Point 3: territorial gains. “It seems obvious,” says Ryan. But Ukraine must recapture territory in order to achieve success, explains the military expert.
Point 4: Ukraine is in position to retake Crimea. Fourth point according to Ryan: Ukraine is in a position at the end of the counteroffensive to retake Crimea. “The final campaign could be the campaign for Ukraine to retake Crimea,” writes Ryan.
Point 5: The destruction of Russian troops and material. “The Russians need to be beaten – and they need to be seen being beaten,” explains Ryan. Destroying Russian troops is an integral part of Ukrainian success. And: If enough invading troops are eliminated, the risk of future Russian offensives is reduced at the same time.
Point 6: Ukraine avoids excessive losses. “Ukraine will devote much of its fighting power to this offensive,” Ryan wrote on Twitter. “But they have to do it in a way that doesn’t take them heavy casualties.” According to Ryan, the Russian-Ukrainian casualty ratio will become an important metric for the offensive’s success.
Item 7: Ukrainian supporters consider the offensive a success. Ryan’s final point: for the Ukrainian offensive to be a success, Western backers must see the offensive as a success. This allows morale and support to be maintained.
