More weapons for Ukraine: how the only way to peace is through the battlefield

analysis

“How can we bring peace into the world if we don’t have peace within us?” Mother Teresa asked herself many such questions during her lifetime. About love, about suffering in the world, about hunger, about war and peace.

How can we pave the way to peace while we deadly weapons to produce? While we send combat equipment to a country trying to defend itself against an aggressive invader with all its might? Is the way to peace through struggle?

After a long struggle, Germany decided in January to include Leopard 2 main battle tanks in the Ukraine to send. The Leopard 1 delivery is now also approved. When exactly the war machine will arrive and be ready for battle is still unclear. But the next debate is already starting: shouldn’t we also immediately think about supplying combat aircraft?

For many, the question arises of how the Russian war of aggression should end. Left-wing politicians such as Sahra Wagenknecht and representatives of the right-wing populist AfD only see German arms deliveries as a prolongation of the war – with an allegedly unnecessarily large number of dead and injured.

Others say that without arms deliveries, Ukraine will lose this war – which, however, will not bring peace. The danger that Russia attacks and wants to conquer more countries, increases with every progress that the country makes in the contested areas of Ukraine.

In whole Germany the willingness to supply arms has continued to increase over the past 11 months. Even before the start of the war, the Federal Republic did not want to send any weapons at all. Economics Minister Robert Habeck was heavily criticized in spring 2021 (then still head of the Greens) because he had demanded defensive weapons for Ukraine. Today Germany even supplies battle tanks.

Even in peace and conflict research people are more divided Opinion, as a spokeswoman for the German Foundation for Peace Research tells watson. Many are very pragmatic and advocate further deliveries, while some follow more pacifist tendencies.

Ukraine war: More weapons should pave the way for negotiations

Anja Dahlmann, head of the Berlin office of the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg, initially sees no other option than arms deliveries. “In principle, if our goal is to get Ukraine into a position where negotiations are possible, things have to continue like this,” she explained in an interview with Watson.

After the commitment for main battle tanks, the debate is on whether fighter jets should be delivered to the Eurofighter again.Image: dpa / Christophe Gateau

“You don’t just want to support Ukraine to defend itself against Russia. Rather, the idea is to create at least a stalemate in which it becomes unattractive for Russia to continue attacking“, she says.

A situation in which Russia would be willing to engage in negotiations – that is the goal behind all the arms deliveries. If you want to continue on this path consistently, you have to deliver what is militarily required. “The federal government must decide whether these really have to be fighter jets or not.”

Chancellor Olaf Scholz initially categorically rejected the debate about these fighter jets. He doesn’t want to drift, he says. And even SPD foreign politician Michael Roth, who has always shown himself to be an advocate of new arms deliveries, shifts down a gear when it comes to aircraft. In the ZDF “Morgenmagazin” on Monday he said he didn’t think it would be expedient to talk about “always new weapon systems” for Ukraine. Promised systems, on the other hand, should first be delivered.

Ammunition is also important. This is where the problem is at the moment. Roth explained this even more clearly on ZDF: According to experts, the West is not able “to restore the ammunition that Ukraine uses in a month” so quickly.

Russia’s war goal: annihilation of Ukraine as a sovereign state

Peace and conflict researcher Anja Dahlmann explains it similarly. In order to create the targeted stalemate, there is a military need to deliver.

Achieving Peace – Across the Battlefield? There is no historical example in which the attacked was defeated and in the end true peace reigned. That would be occupation, oppression, domination – without security. In this case, Russia’s war aim is the annihilation of Ukraine as a sovereign state. Being defeated in the war would probably entail genocide against the Ukrainian people.

But every war is unique. Every war has its own complexity. In the case of Russia versus Ukraine, Dahlmann says, however, the matter is pretty clear:

A battle towards peace, that’s the current situation in Ukraine. What then emerges from this, believes Dahlmann, will be decisive as to whether negotiations will take place and what they will look like. A truce? peace negotiations? Or is it a frozen conflict?

Ukrainian soldiers fired mortars at Russian positions.Image: AP / Libkos

“There are many wars that just keep going like this,” Dahlmann continues. “Even if not on such a high threshold, but always with a certain potential for escalation.“A situation in which there is neither forward nor backward. In the end, however, that also depends on how far the West still supports Ukraine and how much Russia can still take: both militarily and economically.

Because the West is tightening the economic sanctions at the same time. Just in December the EU launched a new package of sanctions. “With military, economic and also diplomatic pressure, we can come to negotiations,” Dahlmann continues. As soon as the interests of both sides can be satisfied, one sees that negotiations could come about. Good examples: prisoner exchanges, grain deals.

Meanwhile, the situation in Donbass is getting worse and worse. Both Ukraine and Western security services are assuming that Russia is launching a new offensive. And President Volodymyr Zelenskyi reiterated his call for increased pressure on Russia.

Strategically, Zelenskyy explained, Russia’s defeat was already sealed. “But tactically they still have resources for offensive attempts. They are looking for ways to change the course of the war.” The US secret service CIA assumes that a decision will be made in the next six months.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Volodymyr Zelenskyj in Kyiv.Image: EU / Dati Bendo

It is questionable whether the stalemate that peace researcher Anja Dahlmann is talking about will then be reached. Only then could negotiations begin.

Negotiations – but where should they lead?

There are different types of peace in research: negative and positive peace, explains Dahlmann. “Negative peace is essentially the absence of war”. No obvious acts of violence, a kind of long-lasting ceasefire. But without collateral. More desirable, says the peace researcher, is positive peace, which is generally the absence of Violence in a peaceful Company includes. Reconciliation and understanding, dealing with the consequences of war. Not just the absence of war.

It could take 30, 40, 50 years for Ukraine to reach this state.