While they rush to define their strategies for the presidential electionhe Front of All and Together for Change they enter a fight vote to vote in which the libertarian Javier Milei tries to get involved and that adds further uncertainty to the political landscape in the midst of the economic crisis that the country is going through, according to the most recent surveys.
A study carried out by the consultant Zuban Córdoba through a household questionnaire on 1,300 people between April 11 and 16 yielded various data in this regard. In the first place, it shows that the main pre-candidates and leaders of the national scene are almost tied in their level of positive imagewith a 37% maximum.
Second, the survey found that the plans and promises that are being heard, especially in economic matters, do not seem to influence preferences when it comes to voting or evaluating each leader. The two most notorious examples were that of Milei and that of the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa.
The idea of “dollarizing the economy” garnered a high rejection in the Zuban Córdoba survey and even so Milei, its only promoter, appears among the leaders with the best image. In the same way, the possibility of Massa achieving “lowering inflation” would not guarantee the Frente de Todos a better performance at the polls.
Elections 2023: the image of the main figures of JxC and the FdT, very even in the survey
The Buenos Aires head of government and presidential candidate for Together for Change, Horacio Rodriguez Larretaemerged from the survey as the leader with the highest positive image, with 37%, while the negative is 50.7%. However, the other national figures of the ruling party and the opposition were remarkably close.
Its main primary competitor (PASO) for the alliance’s presidential candidacy, Patricia Bullrichhas a positive image of 36.3% and a refusal of 54.4%. Lower down, by just one point, appears Mass with 35.6% positive and 56.3% negative. The minister, who continues to be among the presidential candidates, stood out as well as the best score of the officialism.
Larreta harvests the highest positive image but they all move in the same average
Behind was the vice president Cristina Kirchner with a 34% positive image and 64.2% negative, followed by Miles with 33.4% and 53.9%, respectively. The libertarian thus surpasses by very little the also pre-candidate of Together for Change María Eugenia Vidal who showed 31.1% acceptance and 57.4% rejection.
In the ranking they are followed by the president Alberto Fernández (29.2% positive and 69% negative) and the Buenos Aires governor, Axel Kicillof (28% and 59.2%)while Daniel Scioliwho ratified his presidential candidacy after the resignation of Fernández to seek re-election, harvest 27.1% positive image and 57.7% negative.
further down they were Mauricio Macri with 27% positive and 68.5% negative and the Minister of the Interior, Edward “Wado” of Peteranother of the presidential candidates of the Frente de Todos, con 23,7% and 38.2% respectively.
One of the surprises of the survey is that Pablo González appeared, the president of YPF who was mentioned weeks ago as Cristina Kirchner’s “cover” for the presidential race. In the image ranking it appeared last with only 5.6% positive image24.6% refusal and a level of ignorance greater than 25%.
Political uncertainty, inflation and dollarization
The first piece of data that stands out in the survey is that the difference between the level of positive image of the main national political figures is negligible. just a point separates Rodríguez Larreta from Bullrich and the same thing happens between the PRO referent and the Minister of Economy. The second fact is that everyone harvested in this survey a rejection of 50% or more.
Both elements combined give shape to a scenario of high political uncertainty. “There is no security about who will be able to enter a ballotage and much less of who can be crowned in a second round”, evaluated the consultant.
Despite growing in the polls, the “dollarization” proposed by Milei was highly rejected in one of the polls
One factor fueling this uncertainty is the little correlation between image level of the leaders and the assessment that society makes about its proposals. Zuban Córdoba presented the different ideas that fly over the electoral scenario and asked those surveyed to answer whether they agree or disagree, with a striking result.
Although Milei emerged from the survey as one of the leaders with the greatest acceptance (in a technical tie with Cristina Kirchner and only four points behind Larreta), the idea of ”dollarizing the economy” that became the central axis of his campaign had 61.7% negative responses against 29.2% who said they agreed.
In the same way, Massa appeared as the leader with the best image of the ruling party, but when the consultant measured the level of agreement with the phrase “If Massa manages to lower inflation, he would vote for the Frente de Todos”, 55.1% expressed themselves against and only 38% answered that they would vote for the ruling coalition if that situation occurred.
The race is even: does it benefit Milei?
The technical ties in the level of positive image and the marked difference between that evaluation and the level of agreement with the campaign proposals show that the electoral race is very even and for the moment without a clear favorite for the PASO August, which will offer the first accurate panorama for the presidential elections.
This was reinforced by another survey carried out by the consultancy Opina Argentina between April 5 and 15 with the same type of household survey, which according to specialists is the most accurate. According to this study, the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio tie in a voting intention of 27% and La Libertad Avanza, Milei’s space, is close with 23%.
The Opina Argentina survey also measured two PASO scenarios. In both, Rodríguez Larreta prevailed by a wide margin over Bullrich in the Juntos por el Cambio internship while Massa appeared as the winner in the Frente de Todos in the two variables.
Another of the surveys showed a possible tie between the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio, with Milei close
In the first scenario, Rodríguez Larreta reaped a voting intention of 16% and surpassed Bullrich with 10% and the radical Gerardo Morales with 5% within Together for Change. In front of everyone Massa had 12% who comfortably beat Scioli’s 8% and the 6% that De Pedro had.
In the second scenario, the inmate of Juntos por el Cambio sin Morales again gave advantage to Rodríguez Larreta with 18% against Bullrich’s 11%while in the Frente de Todos, without Scioli or De Pedro, the Minister of Economy took 16% against 10% of a hypothetical presidential candidacy of Kicillof.
An outstanding fact of that survey is that, as in other polls, Milei appears as the candidate with the highest individual vote intention for PASOwith 23% in the first scenario and 24% in the second.
