“Putin has an ace up his sleeve – the West should be on guard”

FOCUS online: There are increasing reports from NATO circles and think tanks that Putin’s troops are going out of breath in his illegal war of aggression against Ukraine. You were a colonel in the planning staff of the German defense minister and in the private office of the NATO commander-in-chief, so you know the business firsthand. What is it about such reports?

Ralph D. Thiele: I think that’s nonsense. It is true that the advance of Putin’s troops is halting. It has been evident since the first days of the war that things are not going as well as he had imagined for the Russian President. I would describe the current situation more like this: With the Russian and Ukrainian armies, two ailing boxers are facing each other, each of whom is waiting to be able to deliver the decisive winning blow.

What is the current military balance of power? Where do you see weak points of the two armies?

Thiele: A relevant weakness of Putin’s troops is that because of the high losses, he has to send poor or hardly any trained soldiers to the front more and more often. Another handicap is the outdated ammunition his army has to contend with. It is very ineffective and gives advantages to Zelenskyy’s troops.

But while Putin can keep sending more soldiers to the front in his vast empire, Zelensky cannot. The number of personnel in the Ukrainian army is now so thin that it sometimes even has to send special forces – soldiers trained and equipped for particularly demanding operations – into the trenches to hold positions. The Ukrainian president is wasting human resources that he urgently needs for the announced offensive.

Lambrecht’s omissions: “Zelenskyj’s troops have too little ammunition”

However, Zelenskyj’s troops now have various heavy weapon systems with very modern ammunition. Why isn’t that enough to defeat Putin’s troops?

Thiele: Mainly because his troops are short on ammo. It’s about 155-millimeter projectiles for artillery, such as the German Panzerhaubitze 2000 fires. But the one million projectiles that Ukraine has now been promised by the EU cannot be procured so quickly. It needs a lead time of several months, maybe even a year in production.

That also has something to do with the fact that former Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht failed to trigger corresponding orders for the arms industry. Her successor Boris Pistorius has now done that. But that doesn’t change anything about the necessary production lead time.

With these seemingly very unequal armies, how is it possible that Ukrainian troops can still stand up to Putin’s forces?

Thiele: The biggest advantage, apart from the support of Western weapons, is that Zelenskyy’s troops have highly accurate information from Western intelligence services regarding Russian troop movements. This makes the attacks highly effective.

In addition, the enormous morale of the troops, which also visibly suffers from constant Russian artillery fire, pays off for the Ukraine. Another advantage of Ukrainian troops is agility and mission tactics. Unfortunately, these important skills cannot be played out in the trenches either.

„The President of Ukraine will certainly not tell Putin where his troops will launch decisive strikes.”

Zelenskyy claimed earlier in the week that Ukraine’s future depended on key battles on the Bakhmut, Wuhledar, Marinka, Kamyanka and Avdiyvka fronts and that his soldiers would break Russian resistance there. Consider that realistic

Thiele: The Ukrainian president will certainly not betray Putin in this way where his troops will launch decisive strikes. This din is part of psychological warfare. The reality might look different. It should and will surprise badly.

But what can a decisive blow look like? And what does Putin have in hand to decisively advance the deadlocked attack?

Thiele: There are several alternatives. He could use conventional laser-guided 1,000-pound or even 3,000-pound bombs to wipe out entire neighborhoods. His generals are demanding it, but Putin hesitates.

Why?

Thiele: Because he fears that friendly states such as China, India, Turkey and Saudi Arabia could then cut off the money supply and also stop arms deliveries. He is dependent on them.

“Russia has been reported to be exploring worthwhile targets in Western Europe for some time”

What other non-nuclear alternatives would Putin have?

Thiele: Hybrid warfare is a broad field. Cyber ​​attacks and sabotage attacks can paralyze important infrastructures – not only in Ukraine itself, but also in countries that supply Ukraine with weapons – such as Germany. According to reports, Russia has been exploring worthwhile targets in Western Europe for some time. The Russians are expanding this warfare more and more. However, so does the West.

And what options does Ukraine have?

Thiele: In any case, more ammo is very important. And more tanks and rockets would also help from the Ukrainian point of view. The same applies, of course, to Western combat aircraft, which could possibly be flown via so-called “contractors”. Military pilots from the USA or Great Britain who are no longer active and who can be hired privately.

“The West should not get drunk on its own fantasies of superiority”

Are you wondering when will Putin reach the point where he could declare the West a war party?

Thiele: The question is of course justified and must be weighed again and again. But it is also clear that Putin does not want to lose this war that he started because it would mean his own end. And it still has a very large escalation potential – including smaller nuclear strikes in Ukraine, which would in no way entail doomsday scenarios.

As long as it still has an ace up its sleeve, the West should be on its guard and support Ukraine where it actually needs it – and not get drunk on its own fantasies of superiority.