Russia: Putin wants to bleed dry Prigozhin in Bakhmut

International

Apparently, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin leaned too far out of the window. In recent months he has made his political ambitions clear again and again. Above all, he emphasized the importance of his mercenary force in Russia’s brutal war of aggression against the Ukraine may be.

Prigozhin is considered a close ally of Putin – but now friends could become enemies. It’s about power and influence. Laut der US-Denkfabrik Institute for the Study of War (ISW) the conflict reaches its climax. And Putin already knows how to put Prigozhin back in his place – or get rid of it entirely.

Prigozhin takes on the Russian Defense Ministry

The Wagner mercenaries play a central role, especially in the heavily contested town of Bachmut. Prigozhin repeatedly reports via video messages directly from the war zone. There is a lack of ammunition and men, he complains. At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense is increasingly restricting Prigozhin’s ability to recruit convicts.

The Ministry of Defense in London reports that Moscow has denied Wagner boss Prigozhin the opportunity to recruit mercenaries in prisons. In the meantime, half of the prisoners used have fallen victim to the heavy fighting. A nationwide recruiting campaign is not making up for the losses. “If the ban continues, Prigozhin will likely be forced to reduce the scope or intensity of Wagner’s operations in Ukraine“, it says Great Britain.

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin from Bakhmut spoke up in full battle gear. Image: Prigozhin Press Service

And that’s exactly what the Kremlin welcomes. According to the ISW, the Russian Ministry of Defense is “currently prioritizing the elimination of the Wagner troops on the battlefields in Bakhmut”. To the Message according to Moscow, the Wagner troops could be sent to Bakhmut to die.

Prigozhin could now end up as Kremlin cannon fodder itself

According to the ISW, the Russian Defense Ministry — specifically Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff General Valery Gerasimov — is likely to seize the opportunity to weaken Prigozhin. “Therefore, they are intentionally sending both elite and convict troops from Wagner to Bachmut,” the report reads. This is intended to take the wind out of his sails for more influence in the Kremlin.

Prigozhin has already threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut. He also hinted that the Russian Defense Ministry was using Wagner to bear the brunt of the high-intensity urban warfare in Bakhmut. While the Russian conventional forces would spare themselves.

The battle for the city of Bakhmut has already cost many casualties on both sides. Bild: AP / Yevhen Titov

For the think tank ISW, Prigozhin’s threats are an indication: he is aware of the extent of the conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense. The disagreements do not go unnoticed in Ukraine either.

Prigozhin may have lost Putin’s trust

In a social mediaVideo According to the ISW, Ukrainian soldiers are saying that they are holding their positions in Bakhmut and are waiting for the Russians to “shoot each other”. According to the ISW, Prigozhin overestimated Putin’s trust in the Wagner forces. His ambition would be to replace Russia’s military and political leadership with figures close to Wagner. He himself wants to be the next president of Ukraine, as he recently announced.

According to the ISW, Prigozhin took advantage of the failure of the Russian military during Ukraine’s all-out counteroffensives in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman in Donetsk Oblast. He also skilfully managed the turbulent reserve mobilization in the Herbst Played off to his advantage in 2022. Accordingly, he was able to position personnel close to Wagner in place of the disgraced military commanders.

The Wagner boss repeatedly pointed out the incompetence of the Russian Ministry of Defense – in return, Defense Minister Shoigu and General Gerasimov could have him and his men bled to death in Bakhmut.

Prigozhin fights for political survival

These threats and complaints show that Prigozhin is aware of the gravity of his conflict with the Russian Defense Ministry. But according to the ISW, Putin is also alarmed by Prigozhin’s military-political ambitions.

Vladimir Putin and the Chief of the Russian General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, get along very well.Image: Pool Sputnik Kremlin

According to the ISW, Kremlin officials should confirm that Putin is increasingly choosing loyalty over competence in his inner circle. “Putin may have perceived Prigozhin’s criticism as a form of treason”, says the report. The latter could probably see Prigozhin’s “aggressive self-promotion” at the expense of others who had his trust as a threat. After all, Shoigu and Gerasimov have been loyal to Putin and his regime for years.

For more than a year, Ukraine has been fighting against Russia’s war of aggression, which violates international law. The Ukrainians are standing their ground – also because Western allies are supporting them. Above all, the United States is keeping Ukraine’s back free. The Biden government is providing financial aid and weapons, for example. But this supporting arm could apparently break away soon.