The general uncertainty in the markets after the world financial crisis unleashed first by the fall of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and two other banks in the United States, and a few days later due to the collapse of the shares of the Swiss credit after the announcement that it will not receive more funding from its main shareholder, it generates alarm among investors. Therefore, iProfessional consulted the What experts recommend investing in at this time of volatility.
It should be noted that this international financial crisis impacted the main European stock markets and Wall Street, among other stock markets. AND Argentina was not indifferent to this, since the main index of shares of leading companies, the Merval, accumulates a negative of more than 15% throughout March. In addition, national papers fell up to 26% in US dollars throughout the month.
In short, in the face of this tense situation, the Analysts recommend maintaining caution and being very selective when targeting savings.
“Based on the principle that the crisis of the last days seems to be encapsulated and the American financial system, in general, seems to be healthy. The rapid response of the Federal Reserve (Fed) helped calm markets and lower volatility of the sector, to which I do not see a systemic risk that could affect it”, he tells iProfesional Juan DiedrichsCapital Markets market analyst.
In this sense, the analyst Marcelo Pretty adds: “Every time the international reference rates rise, they have some collateral impact, whether it be the closure of emerging markets, debt crises as there have been in countless opportunities in history, among others. It is that the increase in the cost of financing hurts borrowers of lower credit quality, we have seen the fall in the prices of technological shares last year”.
In short, this it also affects banks because it increases their cost of fundingTherefore, financial entities that have the best credit rating and the lowest cost to find money “are not as affected,” he notes.
The Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank crisis creates uncertainty among savers. What to invest in?
On the side of the punctual impact of the bank’s fall Silicon Valley Bank, mainly hit the technology sector, where he had many startups and companies in the field as clients.
“Mismanagement of risk and high concentration of deposits in the same sector caused the rise in the rate to hit the waterline, causing the fall and contagion to two other banks, First Republic de California and the Signature Bank“, detail Diedrichs.
What to invest in despite the financial impact
Before turning to invest at this time of considerable uncertainty both nationally and globally, the Experts recommend playing it safe.
“We have been maintaining that it is advisable to move very cautiously. For some time now, we have preferred short-term United States Treasury Bills (up to 6 months), until the outlook clears up,” he told iProfessional. Paul Repettohead of research at Aurum.
Regarding local investments, he adds that the international effect is “little relevant compared to the serious problems that we have here and that are clearly much more significant. In that case, we always prefer energy papers.”
Given these increases in risk levels, it is also quite coincidental that, at the investment level, “Caution must prevail, that is, the flight to quality“.
Some sectors, such as energy and gold, have fared well from the global impact and have a buying opportunity.
In this sense, he maintains that at the international level the corporations that are having best performers are those from traditional sectors, mature companies.
“I am referring to the large corporations in the United States that have a track record of generating stable profits and distributing dividends. The energy sector has also been favored by the rise in pricessince the end of the pandemic in general and, in particular, since the war in Ukraine”, recommends Bastante.
In contrast, the Smaller-cap companies are the most volatileuntil the macroeconomic situation stabilizes.
One-off stock and bond recommendations
When exemplifying some of the recommended stocks and bonds to invest, the experts consulted by iProfessional are practical.
“I remain optimistic on mature companies in the technology sector, such as Apple, Microsoft y Alphabet (Google), to which I add something more conservative and less volatile like Procter & Gamble. If I am willing to live with volatility, I add to the portfolio Free market“, enfatiza Diedrichs.
by the side of Diego MendezPPi market analyst, argues that “could arise opportunities in some sectorsalthough always depending on what ends up happening with the financial system”.
National stocks listed in both Argentina and the United States were not immune to widespread price declines.
In this sense, it affirms that the companies related to the production of orowhich is a classic refuge in times of crisis, “could be winners. Without going any furtherBarrick Gold (GOLD) y Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY) They are staging an interesting rise”.
From the position of Walter Moralespresident of Wise Capital, points out that for stocks the scenario “is not the best, because the banking crisis could enhance the global recessive scenario that the market envisions for the second half. It is difficult for the Merval to become independent of a downward movement. That’s why, For the Cedears listed in Argentina to benefit, the price of the dollar should rise after liquidation, but quite a lot because the underlying asset is going to be in decline”.
And he ends: “Within this context, even if it seems like a bad joke, nothing better than invest short and especially in Discount Letters (Ledes)taking advantage of the fact that they yield around 125% annually, since the risk of compulsive rescheduling of short maturities in pesos is practically nil, since their maturity is less than 3 months”.
Regarding the domestic market, Diedrichs considers that, although the “plan to reach” the Ministry of Economy is complicated by the greater impact of the drought, and that the results of the exchange bordered the lower limit in terms of acceptance, “the parity of the bonds invites you to take risk and incorporate into the portfolio the domestic maturing in 2030 (AL30 or the global GD30) and 2038 (AE38)”.
In equities, Diedrichs opts for the energy sector. “The potential of Vaca Dead makes companies like VISTA, YPF and TGS constitute a good bet, with a look at a change in expectations from the presidential elections. The strategy would be to accumulate little by little and in good shape”.-
