Joe Biden addresses representatives and senators gathered in Congress for the second time in his term on Tuesday. He will have to defend his record as he prepares to enter the race for re-election. But he will have a lot to do in front of an assembly where the Republicans have been more numerous since the midterms.
Joe Biden knows the exercise by heart. He attended it so many times from the spans of the Capitol as a senator from Delaware, then on the platform, behind the shoulder of Barack Obama, when he was his vice-president. But the listener has become the speaker. This Tuesday, Joe Biden will deliver the traditional presidential address on the state of the Union in front of senators and representatives of the United States gathered in Congress, in Washington. It is already the second for Joe Biden, but the speech of the day will however be new in more ways than one.
Indeed, it is the first State of the Union address since Congress shared its leadership. If the Democrats supporting Joe Biden still dominate the Senate, the Republicans took the majority in the House of Representatives in the wake of the midterms.
In addition, the unpopular Joe Biden must strike the spirits and defend his record step by step when he intends to announce in a few days his campaign for a second term in the White House.
Annual meeting, constitutional requirement
THE “State of the Union Address” is nothing atypical. On the contrary, it is an annual meeting, which custom sets for the month of January… or, if necessary, for the month of February. It’s not just a matter of custom: the event responds to an imperative put forward by the constitution itself. Its Article II, Section 3, Clause 1 thus posits that “the President shall, from time to time, inform Congress of the state of the Union and submit to it for consideration such measures as he deems necessary and expedient”.
Its object is as simple as it is immutable. In this regime without a prime minister, and where the president very largely personifies the executive, it is for the latter to deliver his speech on general policy, and above all to promote his action.
International news invited to Washington
These two plans should merge closely during this edition, which we imagine will spare a great deal of space for the evocation of the war in Ukraine and international issues.
As noted here by PBSJoe Biden will not fail to praise his leadership within the international community in the Ukrainian conflict, and the firmness of its attitude towards China, in the competition which opposes the two countries, but also in echo of the destruction of the spy balloon which hit the American headlines a few days in last weekend.
The economy as a battleground
But in the United States, the nerve of war is always economic. Also, Joe Biden should devote most of his remarks to him. A few days before giving up his apron as the main adviser to the presidency on the matter, Brian Deese unveiled Monday the content of the presidential message. According to him, the head of state intends to encourage “people to optimism”. And the situation pleads for him.
It can first boast of solid growth (with a rate of 3.2% in the last quarter of 2022, above forecasts). It can still be proud of an unemployment rate reduced to 3.5% of the active population in December, the lowest for 50 years. Finally, business creation is doing well and inflation – severe at first – is apparently under control, slowed to 5%.
So many successes that should allow him to put the Republicans in difficulty. The question of bipartisanship will in any case be at the heart of the speech as the recent victory of the Republicans in the House of Representatives augurs for tortuous debates around the “debt ceiling” and a possible temporary default of the country. . A traditional blockage during such a cohabitation between the executive and all or part of the Congress.
Mid-term overview
NPR, the American public radio, listed the other points that should mark Joe Biden’s speech: his law on infrastructure – with 1,200 billion in investment -, his law on computer chips which allows the United States to stand up to China in this sensitive market, but also, in another register, that on arms control, the first adopted on this chapter for 30 years in the United States.
An additional element, noted in particular by AFP, shows that Joe Biden also intends to emphasize this Tuesday on the problem of violence: he invited the parents of Tire Nichols to the White House, this young black man of 29 years, died on January 10 after being beaten by several African-American police officers in Memphis.
Under the eyes of 38 million Americans
The stakes therefore await Joe Biden in large numbers at the turn of the Capitol. It must not be missed. Because if he has already said his desire to compete for his re-election in 2024, the formalization of his new campaign is approaching with great strides. There was first talk of an announcement in the days following the State of the Union address, but a Democratic executive, however, entrusted to CBS that it could rather take place in March.
But whether it occurs in a few days or a few weeks, it is certainly imminent. Proof of the crucial importance of his one-on-one with Congress: Joe Biden locked up all weekend in the presidential residence of Camp David to polish his spiel. It must be said that it will not find a better setting to showcase itself. According to NPR, the State of the Union address draws 38 million viewers across the country, the largest annual audience for a president.
And this one badly needs to find the ear of the public. A YouGov poll released on Saturday has established 55% the number of Americans saying their dissatisfaction with his action. His popularity rating is lower than that of the vast majority of his predecessors, with the exception of Donald Trump and Ronald Reagan, according to curves revealed by the site FiveThirtyEight.
Worse, according to a poll aired on Monday byAssociated Pressonly 37% of Democratic supporters want to see him back in 2024. This year, the State of the Union speech will definitely look like a test of truth for Joe Biden.
