Brussels has long been dominated by the two main groups also present in most national parliaments: popular and socialist. Between the two is the group of liberals whose importance has grown in crescendo in the last 10 years. All this can change in the next European elections in May 2024.
To understand who has ruled Europe with an iron fist, it is enough to take a look at the composition of the European Council since 1961. Although at first the center-right and the liberals had no rivals, it is from 1970 when the socialists came to stay.
From 2000 to 2015 are the years of greatest socialist power and, since then, they have been coupled with the popular ones. To the left and right of these are the Greens, on the one hand, and the reformist and identity conservatives on the other, although the latter do not have any presence on the Council.
Projection in seats
The three main parties (socialist, liberal and popular) show diverse variations. He European People’s Party (EPP), from the center right, stands at 157 seats (range from 148 to 161). The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) would stay with 143 (range from 135 to 147), and the liberal Renew Europe (RE) It now stands at 90 seats (range 80-94). Together, these three parties would continue to hold an absolute majority of the 705 total seats.
Seat by party for the 2024 European elections
To the right of the political spectrum, European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) would obtain 82 seats (range from 76 to 86) and Identity and Democracy (ID) would get 72 seats (range 65-76).
On the left, the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) would obtain 49 seats (range 42-53) and the Group of the Left in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL (LEFT) He suffers and would stay with 45 (41-47 range). The Non-Enrolled (NI) they would be between 47-58.
A changing landscape
These predictions have been made last month taking into account that the match Fidesz of Viktor Orban It is among those not registered since his departure from the EPP. The natural direction of the Hungarians would be the ECR but there are two obstacles ahead: dealing with the figure of Giorgia Meloni as current president of the party (they are two heavyweights) and the upcoming Polish elections in October in which the Pee can get hurt against the party to his right konfederacja.
As things currently stand within the Visegrad Group and for the ukrainian war Waiting is the best option for the Hungarians so as not to stir up the hornet’s nest and be able to harm their partners in the elections.
This would be the distribution of seats by country in the European Parliament
Just as socialists, liberals and popular groups make a common front in Parliament (reds and blues vote the same 88% of the time), conservatives and identitarios could take the same strategy.
If the ECR and ID came together, they would now make up the second largest force in the European Parliament ahead of the Socialists. If, after the Polish elections, Orbán joined the ECR, the union of the two could even result in being the first parliamentary force.
This option is very complicated today due to the great political figures that are within each group but, if the surprise occurs, it would be the first time that something like this has happened in the history of the EU.
