“Russian forces have again taken the initiative in Ukraine and launched their next major offensive in the Luhansk region.” This is how the current briefing begins (source here) of the US think tank “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW), which has analyzed what is happening at the front in a daily situation report since the fighting began.
The ISW’s assessment marks another turning point in this war. After Ukraine celebrated its military victories in late summer and autumn and determined where and how it fought, the front has been largely immovable since then, with minor exceptions. Only around the town of Bakhmut was there major fighting.
Now Russia seems to want to advance again on a broad front along the entire front and especially further north around Kreminna (see map below); to the areas that Ukraine had liberated in its lightning offensive in late summer. According to reports, the fighting around Kreminna has recently intensified, the Ukrainian governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Hajdaj, even speaks of the “maximum escalation”.
Since significant parts of the Russian troops are involved in the fighting, the ISW believesthat the great Russian offensive, which Ukrainians have been pointing out for weeks, has begun. However, according to the ISW, it is not certain that Russia will be able to record significant successes. Experts have long been pointing out the lack of training of individual soldiers, the sometimes poor equipment, but also motley units whose heavy losses are now being compensated for with recruits.
on the other hand: It is largely unknown how powerful Russia’s troops really are across the board. Over the past few weeks, the generals have also held back ammunition for the offensive in order to be able to develop as much clout as possible.
The fights open up opportunities for both sides: If Russia manages to push back the Ukrainians significantly, the Kremlin’s troops could also attack the Donbass from the north – that was the Kremlin’s original plan before Ukraine destroyed it with its offensive in the fall.
Failure of the Russians to break through Ukrainian lines could in turn favor a Ukrainian counterstrike. If the Ukrainians break through the Russian defenses in northern Luhansk, a significant portion of that region would likely be lost to the Russians and Putin’s army would be pushed closer to the 24 February lines.
The news of the day at a glance:
- Ukraine reports failures of the US satellite internet service Starlink from Tesla boss Elon Musk. This is said to have happened primarily during reconquest offensives in the occupied areas. The company wants to prevent Ukraine from using its drone control system. More about this here.
- The Russian mercenary group Wagner says it has stopped recruiting prisoners for the fight in Ukraine. Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigoshin announced that this procedure had been completely discontinued. You’ll find more about it here.
- The AfD wants to have open questions about the Nord Stream explosions clarified by a committee of inquiry. Group leader Tino Chrupalla justified his initiative with research by reporter Seymour Hersh, according to which the USA had blown up the pipelines. Here you can read more about it.
- The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj sees the relationship with Germany because of the debate about the supply of battle tanks in one “difficult phase”. “I have to put pressure on to help Ukraine and him [Scholz] constantly convincing that this aid is not for us, but for the Europeans,” he said in an interview. This and more in our news blog.
- The Cologne public prosecutor’s office has searched the offices of several companies in North Rhine-Westphalia on suspicion of circumventing sanctions against Russia. According to a report by the magazine “Monitor”, the Kerpen-based company Smart Impex GmbH is the subject of the investigations by the Cologne public prosecutor’s office.
- On the sidelines of a summit in Brussels, Zelenskyy thanked the citizens of the EU for taking in refugees. He wanted to thank everyone, including those who gave shelter to Ukrainians and protected children from bombs, he said.
- Russia’s ex-president Dmitry Medvedev announces that Russia will increase production of tanks. This is in response to Western arms sales to Ukraine, he said while visiting a tank factory in the Siberian city of Omsk.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen says new sanctions against Russia would target “Putin’s propagandists”. Their lies are poisoning public space in Russia and beyond, he said at the joint press conference with Zelensky.
- According to Zelenskyj, several EU countries are ready to deliver fighter jets to his country. “I have heard from a number of European leaders that they are ready to give us the weapons and support we need, including planes,” he said in Brussels.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that his country will become a center for drone development. Russia should build a system for developing drones and become a “source of technology and expertise,” he says.
- According to CEO Armin Papperger, the armaments group Rheinmetall is talking to Kyiv about the delivery of state-of-the-art tanks. “Ukraine is interested in the Lynx and the Panther”, which are “currently the most modern armored personnel carriers and main battle tanks,” Papperger told the “Handelsblatt”.
- Russia wants to use a US journalist’s report as the basis for international investigations into the explosions on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 Baltic gas pipelines. The Presidential Office in Moscow said on Thursday that the world must know the truth about the incident.
- Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has criticized the Paris tripartite meeting of Selenskyj, French President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz as “inappropriate”. “To be honest, I found this invitation inappropriate,” she said at the EU special summit.
- According to a media report, NATO jets flew 570 missions in Europe in 2022 to intercept Russian military aircraft, approaching the Alliance’s airspace – almost twice as many as in the previous year.
- SPD chairman Lars Klingbeil urges diplomatic initiatives to end the war. “It annoys me how the term diplomacy is often almost despised in the political debate,” says Klingbeil to the newspapers of the Funke media group.
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