kyiv is getting ready for a major operation against Russian forces in a few weeks. The scale of this response could mark a turning point in the conflict.
The defense before the response. A little over a year after the start of the Russian invasion, the front line between kyiv and Moscow seems to have frozen. The Ukrainian army is in a defensive position and continues to counter the Russian advance in Bakhmout, the epicenter of the fighting. “We have to gain time to accumulate reserves and launch a counter-offensive, which is not far away”underlined the commander of the Ukrainian land forces, Saturday, March 11.
The Ukrainian Defense Minister assured on February 24, the first anniversary of the war, that the country was working “dur” of this operation, the place or places of which are not yet known. ” We will strike harder and from greater distances, in the air, on land, at sea and in cyberspace “, explained Oleksiï Reznikov. Franceinfo takes stock of the means implemented by kyiv.
By training its troops abroad
Since the end of 2022, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have been trained in NATO countries. They learn to use the military equipment provided by the West (armoured, missiles, rocket launchers, anti-aircraft defense system, etc.). They are also introduced to mine clearance, tactical operations, anti-aircraft defense, and war medicine.
In mid-March, about 55 soldiers were trained one month in Spain to use the Leopard 2 tanks that the allies have delivered or promised to make. They were trained twelve hours a day and six days a week at a military base in Zaragoza, according to Spanish authorities. “The goal of the West is to help Ukraine to win the war definitively”explains to franceinfo Mathieu Boulègue, consultant for the Russia and Eurasia program at the Chatham House think tank.
“If the allies give Vladimir Putin the opportunity to freeze the conflict under the current conditions, he will return with the same intentions in two, three, four years…”
Mathieu Boulègue, specialist in defense issues in Russia and Eurasiaat franceinfo
According to New York Times*, who spoke with American officers, Washington also organized simulation games in Germany to help kyiv prepare for its future offensives. These tabletop exercises with cards are called “war games” in military jargon. They aim to assess the risks and benefits of the different strategies considered by Ukraine. Could kyiv attack in the East, in the Donbass? Or break through to the South? No one knows for the moment which option will be chosen. In January, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told the Washington Post* just a goal “realistic” this year for the Ukrainians would be that they “cut the land bridge” with Crimea.
By requesting additional resources from its allies
“You will not see us begin a counter-offensive as long as we deem our arms and ammunition insufficient to carry it out”warned Olga Stefanichyna, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister, in an interview with Sunday newspaper (article for subscribers) March 12. In Bakhmout in particular, the Russians cut several important roads for the supply of Ukrainian soldiers and the Ukrainian leader conceded that he was becoming “complicated to resist and dissuade”.
Ukraine indeed lacks means. Kupol, a Ukrainian lieutenant-colonel, met by the Washington Post* recounts being faced with serious shortages of ammunition, bombs, shells and grenades. “You are on the front line. They are coming at you, and you have nothing to shoot”, he testifies. Soldiers are forced to ration their ammunition.
Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO, admitted that the consumption of ammunition by Ukraine was much higher than the rate of production of the industrialists of the allied countries. The latter have rather reduced their production in recent years and are struggling to keep up with the pace imposed by Russia. Ditto on the side of the armies: after three decades of budgetary reduction, “all European forces have had to reduce their stocks to the strict minimum”summary In a report (PDF) Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations.
Westerners promised new tanks in kyiv “but it takes time to deliver them”reminds franceinfo the geopolitical analyst Ulrich Bounat. “Very concretely, the ability of each belligerent to field enough ammunition will determine the outcome of the war”, he adds. The European Union “will make sure” to increase its production of ammunition for Ukraine, manufactured by “fifteen manufacturers in eleven countries” of the EU, European Commissioner for Industry Thierry Breton said on Monday.
By positioning its forces at strategic locations
To date, most of the fighting is in Bakhmout. Although many observers doubt the strategic importance of this battle, it has acquired symbolic value for both Ukraine and Russia. “Ukraine is not deploying all its means there, to keep attacking potential elsewhere, but at the cost of exhausting its teams who are going through very tough fights”, believes Ulrich Bounat. The other areas of clashes are located on the North-East front, between Koupiansk and Kreminna. On the eastern front, around Avdiivka, and a little further south, around Marinka and Vuhledar.
Ukraine has not disclosed its plans for a response, but “the bulk of the operation is expected in the South”suppose Ulrich Bounat. “The area has only been occupied by the Russians for a year. It is an area of very partisan activity, where the population is ready to rise up”, he explains. It would also isolate Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. “In Donbass it’s very difficult to counterattack because the line has been very well defended on both sides for nine years.”
“A positional war as it currently exists can only be unblocked when there is a breakthrough.”
Mathieu Boulegueat franceinfo
“Ukraine will wait for Moscow to move to know precisely how to position itself”considers Mathieu Boulègue for his part. “It could either be a massive counter-offensive in the Donbass to drive out the Russians, or break through to the south through Kherson.”
By taking care of the morale of the troops
In view of a response, the Ukrainian leaders are multiplying optimistic messages to motivate a population exhausted by long months of war. “We are able to put an end to Russian aggression this year”proclaimed Volodymyr Zelensky on the first anniversary of the conflict. Military Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov claimed that Crimea may even be Ukrainian again “this summer”quote the Washington Post*.
In Bakhmout, where soldiers are fighting with limited means, “the chief of staff of the army travels very often to boost the morale of the troops”, note Ulrich Bounat. In early March, the publication of the execution of soldier Oleksandr Matsiyevsky, who was fighting alongside the Ukrainians, enabled Kiev to exalt the patriotic fiber of its population. On social networks, his silhouette alone is an anti-invasion slogan.
The authorities have also launched lighter initiatives. On social networks, for example, they launched a #FreeTheLeopards challenge, named after the tanks claimed by Ukraine, which Germany hesitated for a while to send. The population was encouraged to wear leopard-patterned clothing to pressure their delivery.
*These links refer to content in English.
