Emmanuel Macron has mentioned several times a possible dissolution of the Lower House since the start of his second term. But this scenario remained at the threat stage. And for good reason: all the polls show that the president has nothing to gain from it, at least for the moment.
It is a threat brandished several times by Emmanuel Macron since the start of his second five-year term: the dissolution of the National Assembly. A power which is granted to him by the Constitution and to which some of his predecessors (Charles de Gaulle, François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac) have had recourse.
In the event of the adoption of a motion of censure on the pension reform, “I dissolve immediately”, said the President of the Republic in the fall of 2022, even before the text was presented by the government. in January. Then, the Head of State again raised this possibility on March 15, on the eve of a possible vote by deputies at second reading on this bill.
An option that would never have benefited the executive
Each time, Emmanuel Macron targeted the Les Républicains (LR) party, which, for lack of unity among its troops, was never able to guarantee its support for the executive on the reform.
Objective: to put direct pressure on right-wing elected officials who could worry about their future in the event of new legislative elections and, in the second case, to convince those who are still reluctant to support the text. Missed. Faced with the fog, the government took no risk by choosing to use 49.3, rather than submitting its project to the vote of the deputies.
Basically, the scenario of a dissolution never seemed credible, as the power could lose feathers after a reform whose unpopularity was quickly noted. Once 49.3 was drawn, Emmanuel Macron also ruled out this hypothesis, in the same way as a possible government reshuffle or the organization of a referendum.
A hundred seats lost in the event of legislative elections
And the polls published recently show that the presidential camp would expose itself to a great risk in the event of dissolution. According to the one produced by Elabe for BFMTV, the National Rally would be the big winner of such a hypothesis. In the event of new legislative elections, the party to the flame would thus win 150 to 175 seats, which is much more than the number of deputies (89) it currently has.
Conversely, it would be a real berezina for the majority. Already relative (250 deputies), it would see its numbers thinning out quite considerably (130 to 155 seats). The Nupes, which today has 149 elected members, would stabilize or strengthen (150 to 180 deputies), according to projections.
For Emmanuel Macron “who has worked for 6 years to implode the political landscape and to impose himself as the central bloc”, the bet “is only half successful”, according to Matthieu Croissandeau, political columnist on BFMTV .
“Certainly, he imploded the country, now with three blocs, but his bloc is in the minority.”
After “a major crisis”, the electoral dynamics “last”
The proof, if one were needed: Marine Le Pen would be far ahead of him (55%) in the second round, if the presidential election of 2022 took place today. During this, the president had fairly easily outstripped the head of the RN deputies with 58.55% of the vote, against 41.45% for his opponent.
Admittedly, this poll is only a photo and nothing says today that the far right will enter the Élysée in 2027. However, “when a major crisis shakes the country and that electoral dynamics observe on this occasion, these persist, even increase, and are transcribed in the ballot boxes during the following elections”, emphasizes the Jean Jaurès Foundationbased on the example of the 2019 European elections, preceded by the movement of yellow vests.
