The Constitutional Council decides this Friday on the conformity of the pension reform. The executive and Elisabeth Borne, whose future is uncertain, are betting on a green light to establish the legitimacy of their text and close this sequence.
The end of the sequence is near. This Monday, the executive begins a decisive week on pension reform. At its end, we will know if the government bill is validated as a whole, partially or challenged by the Constitutional Council. The decision will fall this Friday, April 14 “at the end of the day”.
An oh so important date for the presidential camp, which sees it as the final stage of the “democratic journey” of its text. The only one who can really force him to change gear according to the decision taken by the Elders, as he stubbornly refuses to withdraw his bill despite the massive mobilizations observed for several months.
The executive then hopes to turn the page, set the course for other bills. But with who? Elisabeth Borne? The future of the Prime Minister is on everyone’s lips as her popularity is falling in the polls.
The head of government is paying the full brunt of a reform, of which she has never succeeded in demonstrating the so-called “justice” or “necessity” in the eyes of the public. Will stay, won’t stay? For how long? There is no doubt that April 14 will play a determining role in the answers to be given to these questions.
“I think I’m still useful”
Before that, the head of government is continuing consultations started last week with political groups. She will notably receive Marine Le Pen at Matignon this Tuesday without any compromise being on the agenda. But the Prime Minister wants to demonstrate dialogue, to prove that she is still capable of governing the country. And above all, do not leave the agenda in the hands of opponents. A way to temporize before April 14.
The sexagenarian clings, convinced that she can remain the helmsman of the government ship, even if it has been very largely shaken.
“I still think I can be useful in the crisis that our country is going through,” she slipped to the Parisian last Thursday.
But how long can the situation last? “With the President of the Republic, we agreed that we would give ourselves visibility over the coming months”, says Élisabeth Borne in The Parisianimplying that the stay at Matignon was not over yet.
She could thus keep her post “at least until September”, i.e. the period of the senatorial elections, according to a macronie strategist, also questioned by The Parisian.
“Democratic crisis”
In the meantime, the Prime Minister came out of the woodwork on Friday, hinting at differences with Emmanuel Macron in statements in The world, Point et RTL. “Expand the majority” as the president asks him? These words could “twitch” she felt, inviting to keep the initial method, that is to say the search for compromise text by text.
As for the unions, Elisabeth Borne warned: “(they) must not come out humiliated from the sequence”. This, even though Emmanuel Macron does not hesitate to shoot arrows at the power stations, and to target more particularly Laurent Berger, boss of the CFDT. The former Minister of Transport then fell into line, saying during a trip to Rodez that she and the host of the Élysée were “perfectly aligned”.
Common point: both reject the analysis of a “democratic crisis”, formulated by Laurent Berger. But perhaps not with the same words, Emmanuel Macron having estimated that this type of remark made “raise the extremes”.
“He is not in his role as a union leader when he talks about this”, judge for his part Élisabeth Borne in Le Parisien.
The left is also betting on a shared initiative referendum
The unions maintain this idea. Laurent Berger mentioned it again during the last day of mobilization. Another, the twelfth, is scheduled for Thursday, on the eve of the decision of the judges of rue de Montpensier. A way of recalling the strong opposition to the government’s bill before D-Day.
But the social movement could take a hit if the Constitutional Council does not censure the law and it is then promulgated. That’s all the executive hopes for after a long streak of difficulties.
On the side of the opponents of the reform, on the other hand, they are betting on a referendum of shared initiative (RIP), tabled by 252 parliamentarians from the left, to ensure that the legal retirement age does not exceed 62 years. . In other words, that he does not reach 64, as provided for in the executive text.
But the road is long and no procedure of this type has succeeded, since its introduction in 2008. The signature of a “tenth of the voters”, or 4.87 million people, is necessary within 9 months, before a possible examination in Parliament, or a referendum organized by the president if the two chambers have not been able to study the text in 6 months. By then, the soufflé could fall.
Before all these steps, the Constitutional Council must rule on this RIP. He will deliver his opinion… on Friday 14 April.
