Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has given his go, Germany is now delivering Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Image: Bundeswehr / Andrea Bienert
International
For the Russian chief propagandist Vladimir Solovyov one thing is clear: the delivery of the Leopard 2 tanks makes itself Germany to the war party. He finds that the Federal Republic has become a legitimate target for military revenge Russia power. Solovyov is certainly not an independent expert who uses facts to analyze whether and how a country is becoming a war party.
But in this country, too, there are repeated concerns that Germany could become a party to the war. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) said at the European Council: “We are fighting a war against Russia and not against each other.” In order to make it clear that this was not a declaration of war for Germany’s active entry, the Federal Government then declared once again: Germany is not a party to the war.
The war in Ukraine has been going on for almost a year now.Image: AP / LIBKOS
The counter-argument put forward by Justice Minister Marco Buschmann, for example: The Ukraine has the right to self-defense and the West can take the country along with it weapons support.
Who is right? And how much support can the West give without being drawn into the war? Watson spoke to military experts about this.
The matter is clear under international law: deliveries of weapons are permitted
For Stefan Kroll from the Hessian Foundation for Peace and Conflict Research, one thing is clear: Germany is not making itself a war party. At least not according to international law. According to this agreement, other countries may help states in self-defense – also with weapons. Since Ukraine was attacked by Russia, self-defense is perfectly legitimate, Kroll makes clear.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (left) and President Volodymyr ZelenskyjImage: dpa / Kay Nietfeld
When asked by Watson, Kroll explained: “Germany, the EU and the USA support this self-defense of Ukraine – no more, but also no less.” International law experts agree that this support does not make Germany a party to the war. “This would only be the case if Germany intervened in this conflict with its own soldiers,” Kroll admits.
Apart from the legal assessment, however, it is important to consider how Russia perceives the support, says the expert. He says:
“Even if it is legally absolutely clear that Germany will not become a war party by supplying arms, a further escalation due to the supply of arms cannot be ruled out – even if it is not likely at the moment.”
It is therefore important that the states that support Ukraine act cautiously and together. Ralph Thiele assesses the situation in a similar way. The retired colonel is chairman of the politico-military Company.
“Germany is a party,” Thiele makes clear in an interview with watson. He continues: “We are not neutral, we have sided with Ukraine. We provide extensive humanitarian aid, we provide extensive economic aid, and we provide armed aid.”
Putin’s assessment has nothing to do with international law
The expert finds it difficult to imagine that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not see this form of support as participation in the war. At the same time, with the weapons available to Russia, Putin has a so-called escalation dominance. That means, Thiele explains, that Russia has weapons that cannot be compared to German weapons.
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What Thiele means by that are, for example, hypersonic weapons, which are considered extremely fast and almost unstoppable. Russia also has nuclear warheads. So atomic bombs. And the hybrid war that Russia is waging can be felt directly in Germany through sabotage attacks on railway lines or similar critical infrastructure. The expert believes that there are similar attacks by Western allies in Russia.
One has to take into account, says Thiele, that the Russian war of aggression is not an experiment in international law, but a real war. The choice of expansion is up to Putin. With the tank delivery, Germany had taken an important psychological step: both in their own perception and from a Russian point of view.
Whether Putin sees Germany as a party to the war because of the deliveries has nothing to do with international law.Image: SOPA Images via ZUMA Press Wire / Ashley Chan
Are the leopards a game changer?
“It’s playing with fire,” says Thiele. For this reason, it is important that those responsible do not approach the decisions fearfully, but prudently. It is a problem that the West does not have an open strategy debate. Thiele says:
The difference is that the first case is about restoring Ukraine to its original state – the other is a fight against a nuclear superpower. From a technical point of view, Ralph Thiele clarifies, the Leopard tanks have only a limited use. Then:
“In fact, such a battalion can only protect a small section of the front and can start where the Ukrainian front is particularly threatened. The Ukrainian army can use the tanks to launch one or two surprise attacks on the Russians – as they did in Kherson also made.”
Suffering, destruction and death have been part of everyday life in Ukraine since February 2022.Image: AP / Roman Hrytsyna
The expert believes that Ukraine is getting itself a logistical nightmare for this. Because maintenance and repairs could not be in the back of the front take place, but far away in Poland or Slovakia.
Has the so-called Kissinger moment possibly come?
According to Thiele, the end of the war must be political and not military. Ex-US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger agrees. It was he who made the policy of detente possible during the Cold War. Now he has written a peace plan for Ukraine that includes a frozen front line.
Henry Kissinger is the architect of Cold War detente.Image: www.imago-images.de / IMAGO/Leigh Vogel – Pool
How “n-tv“With reference to circles, there are said to be initial exploratory talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington. The so-called “Kissinger moment” could come.
As long as no détente is promoted, says Thiele, the war will be a constant escalation. “If we now play gun murmurs, one aspect is also lost: In fact, we are currently disarming the West,” he says.
The example of the Bundeswehr shows that quite well. “Should the conflict escalate, we will not be able to protect ourselves”, Thiele clarifies. Referring to NATO would not help either. He says: “NATO, that’s us.”
