Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has been concern that Russia has Moldova in its sights as its next target. Now there are reports of a leaked strategy paper from the Kremlin.
A strategy paper said to have come out of the Russian presidential administration outlines a detailed plan for the former Soviet Republic of Moldova. If the Kremlin has its way, the small country should break away from the West and strive for a future alongside Moscow. The corresponding plan was leaked to an international media consortium that also includes “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, NDR and WDR.
The paper, apparently drafted in the summer of 2021, contains concrete plans for how the Kremlin wants to promote pro-Russian tendencies in Moldova in three stages up to 2030 and at the same time prevent the country from orienting itself towards the West towards NATO and the European Union.
The document appears to have come from the same Kremlin experts who, at the same time, were drafting a paper on Moscow’s creeping annexation of Belarus. The “SZ” and its partners had already reported on this in February.
It should go to the creation of a vassal state
This time, however, Moscow’s plan for Moldova is less aimed at integrating the country into a Russian-dominated union state – but in the medium term it is about nothing other than the creation of a vassal state that submits to Moscow’s will.
A senior Western intelligence official who read both papers says Moscow’s goal in Moldova is “to increase pro-Russian influence in the country.” Russia sees the country “rather as a pro-Russian buffer” than as part of a new Russian empire. The Kremlin apparently wants to put “a stop sign to the west” and “use all means to prevent the country from becoming a member of the EU and NATO.”
riots in Moldova
Little Moldova has 2.6 million inhabitants with a Russian minority and is located between Romania and Ukraine. The country, which was part of the Soviet Union until 1991, has made a pro-Western turn in recent years, angering Moscow. Moldova was granted EU candidate status in 2022. The ex-Soviet Republic of Moldova is not part of NATO; it is politically divided between pro-European and pro-Russian forces.
Only about two weeks ago there had been violent unrest in Moldova. In the capital Chisinau, thousands of protesters took to the streets to demonstrate against the country’s pro-Western government (read more here).
Western influence should be counteracted
According to the leaked Kremlin paper, one of Russia’s central goals for the next ten years is “to counter attempts by external actors to interfere in the republic’s internal affairs, to strengthen NATO’s influence and to weaken the positions of the Russian Federation.” In this context, the USA, countries of the European Union, Turkey and the Ukraine are highlighted.
At the same time, Moscow apparently wants to provide help when it comes to Moldova’s possible participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) or the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – associations that are dominated by Russia.
Transnistria is at the center of a possible escalation
The war in Ukraine could mean that Moscow has less time to achieve its goals with Moldova. There is concern in the EU and the USA that Moscow would like to create facts more quickly and that a possible coup in Moldova could then also put pressure on Ukraine from the West. This is indicated, among other things, by the escalation of the situation in Transnistria, which faces Russia.
The self-proclaimed Republic of Transnistria is a narrow strip of land bordering Ukraine with its own government and administration. The region still belongs to Moldova under international law, but is controlled by pro-Russian separatists. The population of Transnistria is partly Ukrainian, partly Russian and partly Moldovan
Moldova’s secret service has repeatedly accused Russia of planning an invasion of Moldova from Transnistria. A period between January and April is possible. Russia intends to connect Transnistria and Moldova.
