Three-quarters of voters say they are concerned about President Joe Biden’s age and mental fitness, while nearly two-thirds are concerned about the multiple lawsuits facing former President Donald Trump, according to a new national NBC News poll, which casts a gloomy shadow over the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
The survey It also shows that Trump expands his national lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination to more than 40 points over his closest rival, and has Biden and Trump deadlocked in a hypothetical rematch more than a year before the general election.
What also stands out in the poll, however, are warning signs for Biden beyond his years, including unprecedented disapproval of his job performance, fewer than 4 in 10 voters approve of his handling of the economy, and lagging interest in the elections among voters, key parts of the Democratic base.
“This poll is a striking red light for a party in power,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt and his team at Hart Research Associates.
But Trump and the Republicans have their own challenges, such as the overall unpopularity of the GOP front-runner among the general electorate, as well as the way Trump galvanizes political opposition, including those who have reservations about Biden.
“Yes, Biden’s numbers are not where he needs them to be,” said Horwitt, the Democratic pollster. “But most voters still look to Donald Trump first.”
The NBC News poll, conducted Sept. 15-19, comes a month after the last accusation against Trump in Fulton County, Georgia, days before Wednesday’s Republican presidential debate (which Trump will not attend), and as Biden faces only nominal opposition for the Democratic presidential nomination.
However, according to the poll, a combined 74% of registered voters say they have significant (59%) or moderate (15%) concerns that Biden, at 80, may not have the physical and mental health necessary to be president. for a second term.
Does each statement give you major concerns, moderate concerns, minor concerns, or no real concerns about that candidate?
According to the survey, 62% have significant concerns (52%) or moderate concerns (10%) about Trump facing different criminal and civil lawsuits for alleged irregularities, including the attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
Another 60% have major (45%) or moderate (15%) concerns about Biden’s possible knowledge of or involvement in the business dealings of his son, Hunter, including alleged financial irregularities and corruption.
And 47% have major (34%) or moderate (13%) concerns that Trump, at 77, may not have the physical and mental health necessary to be president for a second term.
“I know he is 80 years old. I know that 80 year olds are perfectly capable. I am more concerned about Biden’s physical health. She seems a little weak and this job comes at a cost,” said Mary Lyon, 53, a Democrat from Tucson, Arizona.
Kevin Chester, an Arizona Republican who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, said he will not vote for Trump in 2024 if he is the Republican nominee because “nothing will be done. He will litigate the past. “It will be an eye for an eye.”
“I would vote for a third party in protest if it were Trump against Biden,” Chester added.
Trump’s lead grows in the Republican race
Despite facing several accusations that his mug shot was published in August and skipping the first Republican debate, Trump now leads the Republican presidential race by more than 40 points, according to the survey.
He is the first choice of 59% of national Republican primary voters, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has the support of 16%, followed by former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley at 7% and former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie at 4% each.
If the Republican primary for president were held today, which of the following candidates would you prefer as your first choice?
In the June NBC News pollTrump was ahead of DeSantis by 29 points, 51% to 22%.
The former president’s gains come from men, older people and moderate Republican primary voters.
At the same time, the poll finds that the share of Republican primary voters who believe Trump should remain the leader of the Republican Party has increased, from 49% in June to 58% now.
A combined 86% of Republican primary voters say they are very satisfied (42%) or somewhat satisfied (44%) with the choice of the Republican presidential candidates.
Biden’s disapproval rating hits new high
Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating among registered voters is 41% and 56% disapprove, the highest disapproval rating of his presidency.
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president?
Deeper into those figures, Biden is sunk among voters between 18 and 34 years old (46% of them approve of his job performance), all women (46%), Latinos (43%) and independents (36% ).
What’s more, the NBC News poll finds that 37% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the economy and 41% approve of his handling of foreign policy.
Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of President Biden’s handling of…
Only 28% of all voters say they are satisfied with the state of the economy (down from 48% who said this at the start of Biden’s presidency in April 2021), although 55% say they are satisfied with their own financial situation. Still, that 55% figure is tied with an all-time low on this survey question dating back to 1994.
And on top of all those numbers, nearly 6 in 10 Democratic primary voters (59%) say they want a Democratic candidate to challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2024, even though no major rival has emerged within the party.
Biden is tied with Trump, but is 5 points behind Haley
Heading into the 2024 general election, the NBC News poll shows Biden and Trump tied in a hypothetical race among registered voters, 46% to 46%.
In June, Biden had a 4-point lead over Trump, 49% to 45%.
According to the new poll, Biden is ahead of Trump among black voters (76% to 14%), voters between 18 and 34 years old (57% to 34%), whites with college degrees (56% to 34%) , Latinos (51% to 39%) and women (51% to 41%).
Trump is ahead among rural voters (67% to 31%), men (51% to 40%), white voters (51% to 41%), and whites without a college degree (63% to 32%).
Among independents, Biden gets 42%, while Trump gets 35%.
In particular, Biden leads Trump by 18 points among those who “somewhat disapprove” of the president’s job performance (49% to 31%). And nearly 1 in 5 registered voters who say they are concerned about Biden’s age still vote for him and not Trump.
In other hypothetical matchups, Biden has a 1-point lead over DeSantis, 46% to 45%, well within the poll’s margin of error.
And the president is 5 points behind Haley, 46% to 41%. Haley leads Trump and DeSantis among independent and college-educated voters, although nearly 30% of all voters say they don’t know her.
If the presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
“She’s acting like the generic, functional Republican candidate,” McInturff, the Republican pollster, said of Haley.
In a multi-candidate field that includes third parties, Trump gets 39% of registered voters, Biden gets 36%, an unnamed Libertarian Party candidate gets 5%, an anonymous No Labels candidate gets 5%, and a Anonymous Green Party candidate gets 4%.
And 67% of all voters say they have high interest in the 2024 election (registering a 9 or 10 on a 10-point interest scale), which is lower than at the same time before the 2020 election. (when 72% had high interest). interest), but higher than at this time in the 2016 cycle (64%). Voter turnout was significantly higher in 2020 than in 2016.
A larger share of Republican voters (75%) than Democratic voters (68%) have a strong interest in the upcoming election, while key parts of the Democratic base (younger voters, black voters, and Latino voters) have less interest than at this same moment as in past election cycles.
Other key findings from the survey
Biden’s net favorability rating (39% positive, 49% negative) is higher than that of Trump (35% positive, 54% negative) and Vice President Kamala Harris (31% positive, 51% negative).
In the hypothetical matchup between Biden and Trump, a majority of Biden voters (58%) say their vote is more against Trump than for Biden, while a majority of Trump voters (57%) say their vote is more in favor of Trump than against Biden.
Voting preference for next year’s congressional elections is essentially tied: 46% of voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared to 45% who prefer Republicans to be in charge, virtually unchanged since June.
And when asked about House Republicans’ impeachment inquiry into Biden, a majority of voters (56%) oppose Congress holding impeachment hearings to remove Biden from office, while 39% support the hearings.
The NBC News national poll was conducted Sept. 15-19 among 1,000 registered voters (including 848 contacted by cell phone) and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The margin of error for the 321 Republican primary voters in the survey is plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.
