LR deputies are under pressure a few days before the examination of the motion of censure. If for the moment only a handful of them plan to vote for it, the fear of a split after days of division on the pension reform are in everyone’s head.
“It’s a shipwreck”. The quote signed by an LR deputy alone sums up the atmosphere in the ranks of the right, the day after 49.3 activated by Elisabeth Borne and a few days before a cross-partisan censure motion.
If none of the 61 deputies of the group signed it, to the great relief of Éric Ciotti, the difficulties are far from over. For the moment, at least 4 deputies want to vote to overthrow the government of Elisabeth Borne.
“Difficult to live together”
Enough to overhang the heavyweights of the right who, from Bruno Retailleau to Gérard Larcher via OlivierMarleix, support retirement at 64 and above all to blow up the group.
“It’s hard to tell ourselves that we could make people live together who say that a reform that wants to make people work longer is bad. We’ve been saying it for years. Thin in the end”, thus annoys an LR parliamentarian.
Valérie Pécresse’s presidential program wanted to shift the retirement age to 65 and the right-wing majority Senate largely adopted the reform brought by Olivier Dussopt at first and second reading. But not enough to force the deputies to support it.
“We have 60 auto-entrepreneurs, each serving their shop and their own interests. It’s not new but before, it only concerned a few deputies. There, it’s now very divided”, already regretted last week a close friend of Olivier Marleix.
Indecision in the camp of those close to Pradié
What therefore push some to think of the post-Macron, who will not represent himself in 2027, and to raise his voice against Élisabeth Borne who has put herself under pressure. The motion of censure “will be the vote of those for or against the reform”, advanced the Prime Minister this Thursday evening on TF1.
Among the deputies who came out of the woodwork and who announced that they support the motion of censure, there are currently Maxime Minot, Pierre Cordier, Fabien Di Filippo and Ian Boccard.
In the ranks of Aurélien Pradié, who crossed swords with the government on long careers, we are for the moment more circumspect.
“I haven’t decided yet”, explains Pierre-Henri Dumont, one of his lieutenants.
A weekend that could change everything
Same story on the side of Raphaël Schellenberger, who assures “at this stage not to vote it without being in a firm and definitive no” with BFMTV.com.
In their sights, the coming weekend. After several spontaneous demonstrations this Thursday in several cities in France and in Paris with 6,000 people, all against the backdrop of strikes that continue in refineries and transport, these elected LRs are waiting to see if the protest movement changes form.
Proof of the growing concern in the ranks of the executive: Gérald Darmanin sent a telegram this Thursday evening to all the prefects appealing to their “vigilance” and “full mobilization to guarantee the safety of all the elected officials of our Republic”.
“If we see that we are going towards a giletjaunisation of the strikers, that we see that everything is breaking up, we will have no choice”, deciphers a deputy who nevertheless supported the reform.
Animosity against Laurent Wauquiez
Some on the right are rewriting history and aiming… Laurent Wauquiez, who is no longer a deputy. The president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region supported the reform with lip service and hardly pushed his lieutenants to wet the jersey.
“There is a subject. It would have been enough for him to call 3 or 4 deputies and that would have changed everything (to get the reform voted, ND). His ex-substitute, Isabelle Valentin, said that she did not support her . It’s still a problem, “says a member of the group.
If Éric Ciotti campaigned for the presidency of LR last winter, saying that his election would be a way of preparing for the landing of Laurent Wauquiez in the next presidential election, relations have become strained.
“Eric told Laurent that he had done it upside down,” says another deputy.
Exclusion or leniency
While waiting to settle the accounts during a next executive office – the last was to take place last Monday but was finally postponed – the fear of the group splitting is on everyone’s lips.
“At the next group meeting on Tuesday, we will look at who voted for it and we will draw the consequences,” said a party member.
This scenario is dismissed out of hand by those close to Aurélien Pradié. The right has however already experienced 2 distinct groups in 2012 in the Assembly during the internal war between François Fillon and Jean-François Copé, before finally patching things up.
“We have an important base of values in common, but the declination of a program with technical measures is difficult. We will succeed in dialogue with our party culture”, wants to believe Raphaël Schellenberger.
“Do not pass for amateurs”
Leniency could well be on the program while the right is in great difficulty after 3 presidential losses in a row.
“If we say that we have two irreconcilable rights, we each make 2.5% on our side. By dividing into two, there will be no future for anyone”, analyzes a member of the movement.
“It all depends on the size of the votes for the motion of no confidence. If we have 5 guys that no one knows, that’s one thing. If there are 15 with a few identified names, we can’t afford to pass for amateurs”, reports another parliamentarian.
One element, however, reassures almost all LR deputies: the fact that the overthrow of the government of Elisabeth Borne remains very unlikely. To achieve this objective, 32 LRs would have to vote for the motion of censure – a figure which seems complicated to gather by Monday.
