Berlin
Scientists can calculate to the day when India will outnumber China. The surprising answer: Since Friday.
China is no longer that most populous country of the world. Mathematicians estimate that it has just been overtaken by India. Although both have around 1.4 billion inhabitants, the decisive factor is the development: In China the numbers are going down – in India they are going up unabated.
The UN does not commit itself to an exact date, but to the trend. And that is clear. There are three scenarios for population development. If you take the mean trend as a basis, India overtook its neighbor just this Friday.
India has the significantly younger population
The reason is the younger population of India. In contrast, in China the birth rate dropped, a deliberate development, a consequence of the so-called one-child policy that was introduced at the end of the 1970s.
Another reason might be that feminism plays a minor role in India. In China, on the other hand, there are more young women in large cities and increasingly have high educational qualifications. Sinologist Marc Andre Matten explains on ZDF that they are no longer willing to “correspond to traditional role models”. For them, having a child often means the end of their career, “and that’s why many postpone family planning until later or do without children altogether.”
The trend becomes even clearer by the turn of the century
The differences between the two countries are also clearly noticeable in other respects: When standard of living and education, but also with the question of whether you live in the city or in the country. In India, the population is growing mainly in rural areas.
It is estimated that India will be over by the end of the century 1.5 billion inhabitants will have – and China will not even have 800 million. And that has consequences:
- For the care of the elderly, for care and pensions;
- and for the economy, because there will be fewer workers, especially fewer workers than employees.
For climate change means development rising emissions in India, but not necessarily lower Co2 emissions in China; and not if the individual consumes more. How the transport sector develops and how the expansion of renewable energies in China progresses is decisive for per capita consumption. (fmg) You might also be interested in: How China is leaving Germany behind in wind and solar energy
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