The evening before the war: everyone knew that, everyone here miscalculated

analysis

It is the evening before the Russian war of aggression on the Ukraine. Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) is a guest on the ARD program “MaischbergerHe is visibly nervous, seems absent. He finds it difficult to listen to the debate, he admits. Arguing about sanctions charged with ideology. He speaks of a clear aggressive situation, through Russia brought about. Of an impending war of aggression, the likes of which Europe has not seen for decades.

Fear is written on Habeck’s face. Moderator Sandra Maischberger asks: “Did the Chancellor share the view that diplomacy can no longer achieve much?” We remember: A week before the outbreak of war, various heads of state, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. Diplomacy at an absurdly long table – today we know: without success.

A few days before the war, Olaf Scholz visited the Kremlin to talk to Putin about de-escalation.Image: IMAGO / ITAR-TASS / imago images

Habeck replies to Maischberger’s question: “Of course we have to try again and again to rely on diplomacy. But you just said it: the scheduled talks at all levels have been canceled.” Talks are not wanted on the Russian side. Habeck was right.

It is now clear: At the time of the interview with “Maischberger” Habeck already knew about Russia’s plans. A visit from the US embassy arrived at the ministry in the early evening of February 23, 2022, Habeck told the “star“. There the Minister of Economics explains:

It was clear that Russia would invade Ukraine. At the latest, three days before the invasion, Putin signed the decree recognizing the separatist areas in eastern Ukraine as people’s republics. Even before that, he had massed his troops on the border with Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia spoke of “provocative speculation” and “hysteria”.

Misjudgments from many sides

And even outside the Kremlin, there were still politicians at the time who were sure that Russia would not invade Ukraine. One of them, left-wing politician Sahra Wagenknecht. Shortly before the outbreak of war, she explained on the ARD talk show “Anne Will” that Putin was not a crazy nationalist who was intoxicated by shifting borders.

Yes he is. That showed up just a few days later.

Left-wing politician Sevim Dağdelen also denounced the western expansion policy to the east until a few days before the war broke out. Both political celebrities are still demanding a quick peace today – without going into the aspect of justice.

Because for Ukraine, this desired quick peace should mean a division. A Russian occupation, in part a surrender of sovereignty. It is possible that further crimes against humanity could follow in the occupied areas. Genocide.

Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) spoke in January 2022 of a “saber rattling“. Not from Russia, however, but from the West. Namely, by talking about arms deliveries in support of Ukraine.

Gerhard Schröder and Putin have known each other for a long time.Image: imago / ITAR-TASS / imago stock & people

And many a military expert has obviously underestimated the situation. This is what retired Colonel Wolfgang Richter said three days before the outbreak of war ZDFthat Putin only cares about security guarantees. That a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be absolutely “unreasonable”.

Demand for arms delivery dismissed as provocation

CDU politician Norbert Röttgen had assessed the situation very differently in early February 2022. He was already talking about a war that Russia was waging in Ukraine – and Western arms shipments to help Ukraine defend itself.

War in early February when the invasion wasn’t until the end of February? Yes. Russia never left Ukraine after Crimea was annexed. Things have not been quiet in the separatist areas that Putin made people’s republics in February 2022 since 2014. More than 13,000 People died there in combat operations before the great invasion of 2022.

During a visit to Ukraine, Robert Habeck – then still co-chairman of the Greens – already May 2021 Defensive weapons demanded for Ukraine. The initiative was not well received by the then Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) or by the coalition partner SPD. And not even in Habeck’s own party. Jürgen Trittin (Greens), for example, showed a clear edge against the advance. In the election program, the Greens spoke out against arms deliveries to crisis areas.

Not all have made a course correction

In the meantime, the Greens as well as the SPD and CDU have made a U-turn. weapons are delivered, Ukraine supports. And the left is still struggling to find the right way to deal with it.

Gregor Gysi and Sahra Wagenknecht (both leftists) are now pulling in the same direction again.Image: dpa / Bernd von Jutrczenka

Party celebrity Sahra Wagenknecht, together with the controversial feminist and publicist Alice Schwarzer, called for a large demonstration on the day after the anniversary. The “Manifesto for Peace” – a pamphlet by the two – has meanwhile been signed by almost 500,000 people.

Including members of the left. Like Gregor Gysi, for example, who thought differently at least in March 2022. At that time he wrote one letter to the group of the left in the Bundestag, in which he lamented the “complete lack of emotion regarding the war of aggression, the dead, the injured and the suffering”.

The leaders of the Left Party have distanced themselves from Wagenknecht’s call for demonstrations. In a board resolution, she expressly committed herself to “the right of self-defence in Ukraine.” However, she also calls for “civilian alternatives to a long war of attrition, escalating arms supplies and rearmament.”

Although the party leadership is not that far removed from Wagenknecht in terms of content, they also accuse them of not having clearly differentiated themselves from the right and the AfD with their initiative.