ZAPORIJIA, Ukraine — Last month, a message was smuggled to friends of ten Ukrainian detainees in occupied territory by the Russians. The men, who were among hundreds of civilian prisoners who have been missing for weeks since the Russian withdrawal from the city of Khersonthey said they were alive, but needed urgent help.

“They asked us to contact their relatives and tell the media that they were alive,” said Andriy, who was also detained and is a friend of some of the detainees, and who, like others interviewed for this article, only gave his first name for security purposes. “They are being tortured and withheld for no reason legal”.

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The withdrawal of the russian forces of entire swaths of territory in the east and south of Ukraine last fall gave many Ukrainians hope that their detained relatives would be released and that Ukrainian forces would build on that momentum to regain more territory in the region more quickly.

But the Russian withdrawal was orderly to the point that even the prisoners were evacuated and the counteroffensive Ukrainian warfare in the south is almost at a standstill, as heavy fighting has concentrated on the eastern front.

However, for the families who live in the occupied areas or who have relatives detained there, it is urgent that greater counteroffensive ukrainianAlthough it carries added risks.

Some of the interviewees at a border crossing near the city of Zaporizhia (the only point of entry for civilians passing from Russian-held southern Ukraine into Ukrainian-controlled territory) said they were fleeing heavy shelling but hoped for a quick Ukrainian victory. The families of those detained by the Russians feared for their safety and were desperate for their rescue.

$!Volunteers help an evacuee at an aid and transit station in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on December 12, 2022.

Volunteers help an evacuee at an aid and transit station in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on December 12, 2022.

Ukrainians who arrived at a registration center in muddy cars last month described an increasingly desperate situation in the occupied areas, with frequent bombingloud nightly explosions from long-range Ukrainian attacks and a life on the warpath with power cuts and medicine shortages.

“It is impossible to live here,” said Lyubov, 81, who was waiting for transport to the capital, kyiv, at the registration center for Zaporizhia accompanied by her daughter. She also reported that her apartment in the city of Mariupol had been destroyed and medical services were scarce.

A family came from New Kakhovkacity located on the eastern bank of the river dniepernorth of the city of Kherson which, they said, had been half destroyed by artillery fire from both sides. “He was flying over our heads,” said Oleh, 60.

There is no doubt that the Ukrainian Army would like to push deeper into Russian-occupied territory in the south and move towards crimea if he could and the pressure is mounting to start that offensive.

In general, military analysts agree that, although Ukraine remains in a defensive position for now, its next major strategic objective is a renewed offensive in the south to cut off the supply routes and communications of Russia toward crimea.

“I have always said that Zaporizhia it is the most strategic direction. is the direction to Zaporizhia the one that can change the course of the war,” said Colonel Roman kostenkoa member of the Ukrainian Parliament and former commander of a Ukrainian special operations force, Alpha.

An offensive south of Zaporizhia to the Russian-occupied cities of Melitopol Y berdyansk it would split Russian forces and undermine their hold on Crimea, he claimed. But he warned that he did not expect any breakthrough until spring, and even then, it would only come if Ukraine received additional help from the West in modern tanks, armored fighting vehicles and guns, some of which are now being promised.

General Ben Hodges, former commander of the us army in Europe, said that the Ukrainian attacks on Melitopola logistics hub, and against the Kerch Strait bridge linking Crimea to mainland Russia had already exposed Russian vulnerabilities in Crimea.

“If the two main lines of communication are already damaged or can be interrupted, crimea It’s starting to look more and more like a trap,” Hodges said in a recent interview on Twitter Spaces for Mriya Report, a popular pro-Ukrainian open source forum.

$!Andriy, right, a former Russian detainee and friend of some of the current detainees, speaks with a psychologist after giving testimony to a prosecutor about his experience, in Kherson on December 9, 2022.

Andriy, right, a former Russian detainee and friend of some of the current detainees, speaks to a psychologist after giving testimony to a prosecutor about his experience, in Kherson on December 9, 2022.

However, an offensive in the south will be even more difficult than this fall’s counter-offensives in the northeast and south, both military analysts warned. And residents traveling outside the region said the number of Russian soldiers in southern Ukraine had risen sharply in recent weeks with the arrival of soldiers who withdrew from western Ukraine. Kherson and joined others from mainland Russia. Russian forces have been building defensive positions further away from the front lines in recent weeks, Ukrainian and US officials have said.

For Ukrainian civilians, the outbound journey was also difficult, hampered by long delays and security checks at Russian checkpoints. A nearby bridge The border crossing had been destroyed in the fighting, so volunteers from the local fire brigade had to tow the cars through deep mud by an alternative route.

It took 49-year-old Lyudmila and a friend two days to escape from the occupied part of the Kherson, where they had been visiting with their parents, he explained. Her parents wanted to leave, but they were not willing to undertake the difficult journey.

The two women spent a night in the city of Melitopol, where they heard nearby Ukrainian attacks. “It was loud and close,” Lyudmila described.

The military Russians were digging new fortification lines, erecting concrete barriers and laying mines, according to several accounts. civiliansbut there were also indications that they were not sure of their situation.

“I have the impression that they don’t know what they are doing,” said Lyuba, a 69-year-old retired businesswoman, referring to the russian soldiers. “Maybe because I rarely see them sober, it’s impossible to talk to them.”

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