How harmful could a possible ban on TikTok be in the United States? The social network is at real risk of being banned from the US market, on charges of leaking information to the Chinese government, and this raises some questions.
The confusion began during the administration of former President Donald Trump, but has gained momentum in recent months. Employees of ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese controller, would have improperly accessed data from journalists and authorities, which further aggravated suspicions.
But would the future of the network be threatened with an eventual ban on US soil? How would this impact the rest of the world that will still be using TikTok?
What can happen to TikTok?
No technological platform with global pretensions can afford to lose the immense user base of the USA — a country with 90% of its 331 million inhabitants connected to the internet, according to the World Bank. The numbers of the market there are impressive not only for their size, but also for the volume of business.
With TikTok, this is no different. The social network recently celebrated 150 million registered users in Terra do Uncle Sam. This represents almost half of the local population, a number that shows the growth power of short videos there.
To get a better idea: TikTok has 1.051 billion daily users on the planet, according to data from Statista. The US market accounts for more than 10% of all people who access the service at least once a day.
An eventual ban would see the network drop below a billion users a day, leaving it behind Facebook Messenger, WeChat, Instagram, WhatsApp, YouTube and Facebook. It would be a huge blow in terms of population reach.
Experts believe in banning
For lawyer Jonas Sales, specialist in Consumer Law, there is a real chance that the social network will be banned from the US, despite the arguments presented by the CEO of TikTok. “The issue has important legal aspects, but it is equally permeated by political contours, especially international ones”, he explains.
The measure could be a form of retaliation for the restrictions adopted by Beijing in recent years. “China does the same through the Golden Shield Project, commonly called the ‘Great Firewall of China’, by banning US applications such as Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, on the grounds that they are not in line with the country’s precepts. No there has been reciprocity for a long time between China and the US when it comes to social networks”, analyzes Sales.
Social media specialist Estêvão Soares also follows the same line and believes there is a “real possibility” that the ban will occur. According to the professional, there are two facts that impact perception: bill 686, known as the “TikTok Law”, and the bipartisan movement in Congress.
“This project has gained a lot of attention and there is a real chance that it will be approved. It is quite possible that, if that happens, Tiktok will be banned soon afterwards”, explains Soares. “Both Democrats and Republicans have an interest, and this has increasingly become a crossroads for the two parties — even the bill is bipartisan. When you see Democrats and Republicans agreeing on something, it’s definitely worth paying attention to,” he adds.
millionaire financial loss
Worse than the reduction in the number of users would be the impact on TikTok’s monthly bills. While short-form ad spend lags behind other services like Instagram and Facebook, the fact remains that US-generated money is key.
TikTok does not reveal who its main advertisers are, but it would not be surprising if companies from the North American country were in the top 5. Data from 2022 from Statista reveal that Amazon invested about US$ 22.5 million in just four months. HBO is in second place with US$ 19 million and Cerebral closes the third position with US$ 13.3 million.
The majority of companies in Statista’s survey are from the United States. Giants like Samsung, McDonalds, Pepsi are among the biggest advertisers of short videos.
As these giants pay in dollars, one of the most solid currencies in the world, a possible ban would mean drying up the relevant source of money. It is a very hard blow that could easily exceed billions of reais per quarter.
With less money and without a local market, TikTok’s representative offices in the country would be closed. The result of this would be layoffs and yet another unwanted wave of layoffs in the technology sector. But that wouldn’t necessarily mean the end of the short video social network.
“Definitely (the ban) would have a negative impact, but not enough to kill the platform. Tiktok has already been banned in India, which was a bigger market than the US. Today, the US has approximately 150 million users, when the Tiktok was banned in India, they had 200 million users in the country at the time and they had an estimated loss of US$ 6 billion”, bets Estevão.
impact not world
With fewer advertisers, there could be a drain on TikTok’s budget, so that could impact the global operation as well. More emerging markets like South America and Southeast Asia could be hurt.
There is also a fear of banning in Europe, where authorities from the European Committee request a series of adjustments to the application to adapt it to the Digital Services Act (DSA) e Digital Markets Act (DMA). The regulations established a set of rules that had an impact on the activities of Big Techs on the continent.
Europeans have tightened privacy rules to protect local citizens’ data. With the eventual restriction of TikTok on the other side of the Atlantic, it could be a matter of time for the Old Continent to follow suit.
A possible ban in the US could certainly trigger a similar movement in the UK and New Zealand, for example. In these places, the social network has already been banned from being installed on cell phones used by authorities and public officials.
“In Brazil, exactly the same logic applies: if there is an understanding that there is a violation of the protection of user data, the path will certainly be banishment”, emphasizes Jonas Sales.
As for Estevão Soares, the chance of this happening here is low, given the country’s good relationship with China. “Speculating about the future, in a scenario where the BRICS group is getting stronger, if the US had a more rigorous posture, this could even impact other products, such as Meta. But it is speculation and I don’t see that happening in the short term. term”, highlighted the specialist in social media.
What is the future of TikTok?
The next few weeks should be decisive for the future of TikTok. The US Congress must analyze the testimony of the platform’s CEO, Shou Zi Chew, to say what steps will be taken.
The Joe Biden government-backed bill to ban any foreign platform that poses a threat to US sovereignty could hit other services in countries like China and Russia.
It is worth remembering the example of Huawei, which underwent heavy sanctions by the US when it was on the verge of becoming the largest cell phone manufacturer in the world. Although it happened for different reasons, the result was disastrous for the company.
“The end of Tiktok would still represent an incalculable loss for content creators. The way Tiktok’s algorithm works allows content that you can’t find on other networks to have greater visibility on the platform — especially content made by content creators independent. Competition between platforms is healthy and necessary, so I believe the overall impact would be negative, but content creators would probably migrate to other networks”, concluded Estevão Soares.
ByteDance, owner of the short video platform, certainly won’t want to give up its biggest source of income in the West. It remains to be seen what the Chinese Big Tech’s next moves will be and whether the US will really expel one of the most beloved platforms from the local public.
