Analysts consider that there may be a good scenario after the presidential elections. How the price of the dollar and reserves can be located
By Mariano Jaimovich
12/04/2023 – 18,00hs
The presidential elections are just around the corner and market analysts are drawing different scenarios for investors for the remainder of 2023 and the coming years, where the dollar and debt securities stand out as an opportunity. In this context, experts from Criteria analyzed these aspects in a press event in which iProfesional participated, where they diagnosed that Argentina has the possibility of showing very positive databut they warned that there are various threats.
As a starting point, it is considered that the debt in pesos that the Government must face “is manageable” for the coming months, Therefore, it is not considered that there will be noise in the next renewals (or rollovers), because around 80% of the actors who own public securities, representing corporate investors and private banks, “cannot get out” of these instruments, since there is no destination where to channel that capital.
He The problem is that the remaining 20% of debt holders who can choose not to renew their investments at their maturity will generate a surplus volume of pesos that, according to Criteria analysts, could represent a demand of US$500 million per month. , which “endanger the price of the dollar and will generate greater pressure on the price from June, especially since that amount of currency that can be demanded today is not on the market”.
In this sense, the market considers that the “agro dollar” that the Government has just implemented, where it pays $300 to agricultural producers and regional economies, will be “very expensive and will put pressure on inflation.”
From this perspective, the electoral climate may accelerate the dollarization of portfolios to hedge political and economic uncertainty. In this sense, the Criteria experts state that the bonds tied to the dollar with Argentine law can be a good alternative investment in general, especially those with the lowest parity. It is that it is estimated that they can rise in price, at least, by 50%, if the situation improves in 2024 with the change of Government and the balance of the variables.
Regarding this phenomenon that can move the price of the dollar, analysts believe that the Government has enough bonds to “withstand the dollarization pressure” in the cash market with liquidation and “calm it down”, at levels that are located in a demand of up to US$400 million per month.
The price of the dollar, for economists, should be around $303. So the current value of the free ticket is considered “expensive”.
“Ideal” Dollar Price and Reserves
Criteria analysts believe that the real equilibrium exchange rate compatible to trade with the world, based on the values registered between 2011 and 2022, should be around $303.5. That is to say, a figure very similar to what the Government pays for exports in the recently announced “agricultural dollar.”
Therefore, the present value of the cash with liquidation, around $400, is considered a “very high” exchange rate in historical terms”, close to the level that existed after convertibility.
“It’s about 25% to 30% above the price that is needed. It is a very expensive dollar for today, although it is also the other side that represents a scenario of political uncertainty and complex variables in the economy with many imbalances. On the other hand, if in 2024 there are positive factors regarding the accumulation of reserves and the reduction of the deficit, it will mean having bought the most expensive dollars of your life”summarize the Criteria analysts.
It is that, according to these professionals, next year, with the political change and conjunctural conditions, can more foreign exchange earnings from exports, since a substantial climatic improvement is expected for the field, in which it is estimated that it can contribute a record of around US$43.700 million of agricultural liquidations. To this could be added another US$20,000 million of energy exports.-
