The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin on Friday. How dangerous can that be for the Kremlin boss?
The most important things at a glance
The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands, issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. The Kremlin chief is accused of war crimes in connection with the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. The ICC has also issued an arrest warrant against the Russian government commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Lwowa-Belowa.
The investigation is being conducted by the chief prosecutor of the ICC, Karim Khan, who has traveled to Ukraine three times in the past year. But what exactly does the arrest warrant mean? Will the Russian President be arrested now – and if so, by whom? Is extradition to The Hague likely? The overview.
What the Kremchef is accused of
Rockets on civil infrastructure, executions, rape of women and children: the Russian leadership is held responsible for numerous war crimes in the Ukraine war. However, the arrest warrant issued by the ICC against Vladimir Putin is limited to two specific allegations.
The Kremlin chief is accused of being responsible for the illegal deportation and forced transfer of Ukrainian children to the Russian Federation. The alleged crimes are believed to have been committed on occupied Ukrainian territory after the start of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, the ICC said in a statement. There are sufficient reasons to believe that Putin “individually responsible” It goes on to say that he was responsible for the deeds: either because the President was directly involved in the deeds or because he did not prevent his subordinates from doing so.
Will Putin be arrested now?
The warrants are a first step towards a trial. However, previous trials show that holding high-level government officials to account is difficult. In more than 20 years, there have only been five convictions for so-called core crimes. None of the convicts are top representatives of a power structure.
An arrest of Putin is also currently unlikely: Putin cannot invoke his immunity, as this does not apply to proceedings for war crimes or crimes against humanity. But the Russian Federation does not recognize the court in The Hague. Russian authorities are therefore unlikely to take action against their president, especially not in a Russia that now has dictatorial traits.
The first signals from Moscow after the announcement on Friday also support this: “Meaningless” and “void” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the court’s decision. One will therefore with Den Haag “not cooperate”.
Which countries are no longer safe for Putin?
The arrest warrant restricts Putin’s freedom of movement. So-called states parties to the court are now obliged to arrest the Kremlin chief should he enter their territory. 139 countries worldwide have signed the Rome Statute – the contractual basis of the ICC – and 123 have ratified it.
That means: In 123 countries around the world, it could now be dangerous for Russia’s president. This affects almost all European countries, all of South America, numerous countries in Africa and a few countries in Asia. The security authorities there would have to arrest Putin immediately should he set foot in their country and extradite him to The Hague.
Will he be tried now?
But as long as Putin is only on Russian soil or traveling to countries that have not signed the Rome Statute, the arrest warrant should not pose a threat to him. He cannot even be tried in absentia – the International Criminal Court is not allowed to try people who are not present in court. A conviction of Putin for war crimes seems a long way off.
