March closed with the parallel dollars on the rise and a Central Bank exhausted by a severe drain on reserves that led it to sell almost US$2,000 million throughout the month.
April did not start much better for the BCRA, which had to close a day of net sales for US$259 million on Monday. This is a worrisome red, more than doubling the average of around $90 million a day for the month just ended.
In this context of deteriorating public coffers –which are waiting for relief from the new 3 soybean dollar, which is yet to be defined–, the big question is how can the price of the dollar evolve in april.
The financial consultant Salvador DiStefano anticipates that what is beginning will be “another month with financial problems” and envisions a acceleration of the different exchange rates.
“The wholesale dollar increased 5.5% in the months of January and February, to go on to increase 6.0% in the month of March. We believe that in April this rate should increase to 6.5%. Therefore, by the end of April we see the wholesale dollar at $222.6. Today, the April future dollar stands at $225.50,” he said in a report.
Blue dollar: how much should it be worth and why is it appeased?
Amid the volatility of recent weeks, the free dollars were the ones that attracted the most attention, since they marked nominal records in their quotes.
Salvador Di Stefano explained why the price of the blue dollar is contained.
He Dolar blue was in the spotlight last week when he scored an all-time high of $397. This Monday it went back to $392, but the analyst consensus is that it has a steep bull run ahead of it.
“The blue dollar is the people’s dollar, it rises less than inflation and just above the official dollar, it is behind in its evolution. Today, at a minimum, it should be worth $450 and it is the one that has the most to go up”, highlights Salvador Di Stefano. However, he points out a factor that would, up to now, be working as a ballast for the price: “The problem is that it is the most offered dollar given the great recession that this economy is experiencing. For example, someone who can’t make ends meet goes out to exchange dollars to cover their needs, this applies to a family, merchant, industrialist, agricultural entrepreneur, and others.”
Dollar CCL and MEP: the rises that are coming
He mep dollar It has become a reference for many Argentine savers, since it can be easily acquired (in most home banking), legally and without the limitation of US$200 per month that afflicts the solidarity dollar. This other “people’s dollar” closed this Monday at $396,94well above the beginning of March, when it had traded at $359.78.
Salvador Di Stefano details that in the first quarter of this year, the MEP had a rise of 21.1% and climbed 108.52% in the last 12 months. In this way, it surpassed inflation, which is running at 104.6% per year.
Despite this, the financial consultant affirms that the MEP will maintain an aggressive rate of rise this April. “We believe that from now on we will have a rise similar to inflation plus an additional plus. The MEP dollar should seek a value close to the $450. However, the intervention of the Government keeps it below $ 400 “, he analyzes. And he sentences with his forecast:”By the end of April, it could be around $430. You can beat inflation again“.
The value of the MEP dollar may have a strong rise in April, according to Di Stefano.
On the side of the dollar with liquidation (CCL), Di Stefano indicates that in the last year it increased 112.5%, “more than the MEP dollar and inflation, it is consolidated as a safeguard of value.” The CCL is today the most expensive dollar in the market and was traded this Monday at $406,80.
Dollar: towards a widening of the exchange rate gap
In his analysis, Di Stefano warns that the official wholesale dollar is rising less than inflation, “which shows us that the government continues to use it as an inflationary anchor.”
As a counterpart, the parallel dollars increase at a faster rate than inflation and the gap widens. “Everything suggests that, as we get closer to the electoral process, the gap will continue to grow if we do not know the electoral result,” concludes Di Stefano.
