Despite the soybean dollar, the Central Bank sold US$18 million this Thursday, marking its sixth consecutive round in red, so the negative balance grows
By iProfessional
05/05/2023 – 09,17hs
Despite of soybean dollar, the Central Bank sold US$18 million this Thursday, marking its sixth consecutive round in red. Although this represents a slowdown compared to previous rounds, the negative balance for May now stands at US$276 million in net sales in the market.
Meanwhile, the Export Increase Program (PIE), which has a temporary differential exchange rate of $300 per dollar for the soybean complex and regional economies, registered this Thursday the “highest since April 21” sales volume, said the analyst of PR Corredores de Cambio, Gustavo Quintana . In this regard, agricultural liquidations contributed close to US$153 million.
The monetary authority bought those US$153 million at $300 and sold US$171 million in the MULC, resulting in a net sale of US$18 million at $408.77 per dollar (prorating the absorption on the sale net), according to the economist Salvador Vitelli. In this way, the Central BankIt accumulated a loss of $130,601 million and issued $213,621 million.
With the shortage of reserves and an issuance that will put more pressure on prices, the accounts of the soybean dollar do not seem to be positive. The volume traded in the cash segment was US$501 million, in the futures sector of the Mercado Abierto Electrónico (MAE) operations were registered for US$2 million and in the rofex futures market US$ 607 million, according to the site Eleconomista.com.ar.
The vision of Investing in the Stock Market (IEB)
On the other hand, according to IEB Research, “the last week of April and the first days of May meant a substantial fall in the accumulated reserves by the BCRA since the beginning of the PIE: of the US$ 1,927 million liquidated up to Thursday, the monetary authority has only accumulated US$183 million versus the peak of US$654 million reached a week ago.
The number becomes even more worrying when compared to those reached by the Soybean Dollar I and the Soybean Dollar II, which at the same height meant an accumulation of reserves equal to US$4,651 million and US$1,242 million, respectively.”
Disappointment with the third version of the “soybean dollar” accelerated times
“The pressure on net reserves could be alleviated if a recalibration of the calendar corresponding to the agreement with the IMF, which could imply an advance of disbursements for a total of US$10.600 million foreseen for the period between June and December. However, it would not be surprising if said recalibration is accompanied by new conditions and objectives that limit future government policies, such as intervention in the foreign exchange market,” they said at IEB.
Disappointment with the third version of the “soybean dollar” accelerated times
With the net reserves of Banco Central dangerously close to zero between the end of April and the beginning of May (gross around US$ 35.9 billion), after almost three weeks of validity of the soybean dollar III, all the warning lights inevitably went off.
“In the futures market, the official exchange rate began to be negotiated at a implicit price of $360 per dollar by the end of August, a jump of almost 60% for a horizon of less than four months, reflecting expectations that also spread to the dynamics of prices, particularly for basic necessities, for which a deep market has also opened up. gap, between ‘Fair Prices’ with compliance surely quoted and in force in some gondolas of the CABA and ‘market prices’, for the rest. Even so, the VAT data for April reflect that the demand has once again behaved in “collection mode” for non-perishable products, anticipating ‘worse times’ for the price/salary ratio”, describe Jorge Vasconcelos and Maximiliano Gutiérrez in the last weekly report of the Ieral of the Mediterranean Foundation.
In this context, they explain, the Government tries not to lose the initiative, trying to lubricate the supply of imported goods through indebtedness with China (and eventually with Brazil), since the rest of the suppliers are very limited due to the lack of foreign currency and also, betting on partially reversing the deterioration of expectations, to achieve an acceleration of IMF disbursements, to temporarily make up the meager reserves of the Central Bank.
“To obtain IMF ‘fresh money’ another agreement should be negotiated, so what is at stake is simply a change in the disbursement schedule which, in any case, should be reserved to deal with payments between now and the end of the year, since between this second quarter and the fourth still remains (counting those possible turns) a red to cover of US$ 3,500 million, computing exclusively the bilateral balance between Argentina and the IMF”, point out Vasconcelos and Gutiérrez. It is possible, they say, that the recent announcements of strong adjustments electricity and gas tariffs (as a way of cutting subsidies) are part of the agenda under discussion between the Government and the IMF staff, “aimed at accelerating disbursements”.
