Whatever the assumptions of candidacy for the presidential majority, Marine Le Pen would come out on top in the first round, according to an Ifop-Fiducial poll for “Le Figaro Magazine” and Sud Radio.
Four years separate us from the next presidential election. But what could happen if it happened tomorrow? According to an Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le Figaro Magazine and Sud Radio published on Wednesday, such a scenario would above all benefit Marine Le Pen, who would considerably improve her 2022 score.
The leader of the National Rally would collect 31% of the vote if the first round took place next Sunday, in the case of a single candidacy from the left around Jean-Luc Mélenchon (22%) and facing Édouard Philippe for the majority presidential (28%). That is an increase of eight points compared to the score obtained last year, while Emmanuel Macron won 28% of the vote and Jean-Luc Mélenchon 22%. The hypothesis of a candidacy of Emmanuel Macron has not been tested in this poll, since the president cannot claim a third consecutive term.
The Mayor would do better than Darmanin or Bayrou
If the left did not leave united, Marine Le Pen would come first (29%) ahead of Édouard Philippe (26%), but it reaches 36% of voting intentions in the event of a candidacy by François Bayrou for the presidential majority. (9%). Gérald Darmanin would do a little better (11%), but Marine Le Pen would then attract 35% of the vote. Bruno Le Maire would rise to 18% against 32% for the candidate of the National Rally.
“His image has completely changed and so has the structure of his vote. It’s no longer the FN vote of yesteryear, it’s now a catch-all vote”, explains to the Figaro the head of Ifop, Frédéric Dabi.
No favorable scenario for the left and the Republicans
If the left left in scattered ranks, the leader of the Insoumis Jean-Luc Mélenchon would collect 20% against all the candidates of the presidential majority, except Édouard Philippe: his score would then fall to 17%. The communist Fabien Roussel would collect between 5 and 6.6% of the votes according to the configurations.
The Republicans behind Laurent Wauquiez would make between 4%, in the event of Edouard Philippe’s candidacy, and 10%, if François Bayrou presented himself. Éric Zemmour would oscillate for his part between 6 and 7%, a score similar to that obtained in 2022 (7%).
Marine Le Pen on her way
Another study published on Wednesday reveals that a majority of those questioned consider that Marine Le Pen is “close to the concerns of the French people” (58%, +2 points in one year), “attached to democratic values” (57%, +4 points), “competent” (52%, +6 points) and “able to reform the country” (51%, +8 points). 47% of respondents also consider that Marine Le Pen “has the stature of a President of the Republic” (+5 points).
These are not Marine Le Pen’s only signs of progress. According to a new “L’Opinion en direct” survey conducted by the Elabe institute for BFMTV on the French and the political climate, Marine Le Pen would be ahead of Emmanuel Macron in the second round of the 2022 presidential election if it took place again today. today. She would beat the President of the Republic with 55% of the votes against 45%.
Surveys conducted online, that of voting intentions on March 30 and 31 with a sample of 1105 people, that on the image of Mrs Le Pen on March 28 and 29 with a sample of 1002 people, representative of the French population aged 18 and over, according to the quota method. Margin of error between 1.4 and 3.1 points.
